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Market Outlooks
Beyond the Index – Private Credit: Where We’ve Been, Where We’re Going
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Industry veterans Ian Fowler and Adam Wheeler describe the dramatic evolution of private credit markets and explain why quality of earnings and varied definitions of ‘senior’ risk could be at the center of the next credit market storm.
Market Outlooks
The Brexit Election: What now for the UK and the EU?
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Few political earthquakes come as big as this one. Boris Johnson has defied his critics and skeptics, including many in his own Party, and redrawn the political map of the UK. It is no small triumph that will become part of British folklore. It takes the Conservative electoral support back to the Thatcher years whilst wrenching seats from Labour that had, in many cases, been regarded as untouchable since the 1930s.
Market Outlooks
Fixed Income Market Update
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U.S. economic data surprised to the upside in December with strong employment and growth results and the Fed remained on hold as expected. Progress on tariffs and U.K. election results lowered geopolitical noise for the time being. These developments led to continued improvement in risk sentiment.
Market Outlooks
2020 Market Outlook: Recession Risks or Market Myths?
While questions surrounding the pace of U.S. economic growth linger, how can investors distinguish recession risks from market myths? Read Chief Investment Officer Sean Clark's 2020 Market Outlook commentary to see what risks and opportunities investors face in the year ahead.
Market Outlooks
Low volatility equities: Why now, why active?
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Against the backdrop of a continuing bull market in equities, investor uncertainty has increased with a number of key economic and geopolitical risks, resulting in rising market volatility.
Investors have logically sought to de-risk* portfolios, and given the low interest rate environment, they have rotated significant amounts of money into defensive equities, resulting in stretched valuations for certain pockets of these stocks. At the same time, equity upside remains attractive as accommodative policy and the potential for trade resolution between the U.S. and China could support future gains. As a result, investors now face three competing objectives: how to de-risk portfolios, without overpaying for defensive equities, while maintaining equity upside.
Policy and Regulatory Commentary
The Next Trade War Will Be Digital
At a celebration of the three-centuries’ long relationship between the United States and France last spring in Baltimore, Maryland Lt. Gov. Boyd Rutherford (R) proclaimed, “The history of Maryland is intertwined with France.” While the lieutenant governor was most likely referring to French immigration to Maryland beginning in the mid-1700s that has created a vibrant “French Town” in Baltimore, the nation and the state seem to still have a lot in common: to the chagrin of other governments, both are pursuing a digital services tax (DST).
Fixed Income Insights
Weekly Fixed Income Commentary: Treasury yields end nearly unchanged on a cautious tone
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Short-maturity U.S. Treasury yields fell slightly last week, while longer maturities were unchanged. Rates rose early in the week before inflation data and negative trade news shifted momentum.
Market Outlooks
AAM Viewpoints: Attempting to Right-Size Expectations
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A quick canvas of the headlines and sound bites detailing market outlooks for 2020 includes some positivity but also many phrases, such as: get more defensive, returns will be muted, now is not a good time to be investing and don’t expect a repeat of 2019 anytime soon.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Wire: Our “20/20 vision”
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To say investors have had a few things vying for their attention these past few weeks might be the understatement of our brand new year. Consider that so far in January we have seen the market consistently hit all-time highs; the US and Iran approach the brink of war; the Phase 1 US/China trade agreement signed; the “New NAFTA” or USMCA pass the Senate, and that same Senate launch the impeachment trial of President Trump.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Market Compass: The US-China trade deal presents a paradox for markets
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Last week, the US and China signed their Phase 1 trade agreement. This trade deal is a paradox — in my view, it is both inconsequential and yet extremely important.
Policy and Regulatory Commentary
Trade and Terrorism Could Spell a Bumpy 2020 for Tech
Earlier this week, the U.S. Department of the Treasury announced it would no longer consider China to be a currency manipulator. (That’s a big step for the U.S. president. On the campaign trail in 2016, President Trump regularly called out China for its efforts to sway the valuation of its currency; something some key Democrats, like Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) have echoed.) Today, President Donald Trump and Chinese Vice Premier Liu He will sign a limited, phase one trade pact between the United States and China.