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Market Outlooks
Behavioral Advisor Perspectives and Practices: Drawdown, Turbulence and Recovery
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Everyone breathed a sigh of relief as markets had several positive days. Don’t be surprised, however, if markets drop suddenly and test or breach previous lows several times over the next few weeks or months. Much like flying through a thunderstorm, there are likely to be some bumpy times ahead. No matter how many times you have flown, your heart jumps every time the aircraft drops. Fortunately, there is no need to time the bottom for long-term investors.
Market Outlooks
Behavioral Advisor Perspectives and Practices: Stay Invested Through the Rocky Bottom
One of the biggest challenges for investors is staying invested as markets sell off. Every up and down swing creates strong emotional reactions and constant second guessing. Periods of high volatility can last for weeks or months and are emotionally draining. While it may feel like you are doing nothing by staying invested during these periods, you are likely avoiding costly mistakes by not compounding an already difficult situation.
Behavioral Finance
Behavioral Advisor Perspectives and Practices: Responding vs. Reacting
Beneficial long-term decisions often feel counter-intuitive at the time, but don’t underestimate the value of a steady hand when things seem the most grim.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Market Compass: The Federal Reserve unveils more tools to help the US economy while Congress debates its next step
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A great deal of news has been announced over the last week, and it can be difficult to determine what’s the most meaningful for markets. Here are the items I’m focused on this week.
Market Outlooks
View of the Business Cycle by Fidelity's Asset Allocation Research Team
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A review of the current state of the U.S. business cycle and the effects of the spread of COVID-19, as well as the potential implications for asset allocation.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Market Compass: Assessing the globe’s three-pronged policy response to coronavirus
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he coronavirus pandemic is spreading in Europe, the UK, Canada, and the US — and economic activity is grinding to a halt in some sectors as discretionary spending and activity have been sharply reduced in favor of basic needs.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Market Compass: Could the surge in market volatility signal the end of the current market cycle?
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Last Friday, Russia surprised markets by refusing the production cuts the rest of OPEC+ supported — cuts that were needed to stabilize oil prices in the face of the coronavirus-related hit to global demand. Saudi Arabia responded over the weekend by announcing an actual increase in oil production. This comes on the heels of an announcement by Italy effectively shutting down much of northern Italy.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Market Compass: As markets struggle, where do global economies go from here?
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We have seen a rapid and dramatic market correction as a result of the news flow around the COVID-19 outbreak. This appears to be an overreaction, in my view — but I would not be surprised to see the sell-off continue as uncertainty remains high on key issues: ease of transmission, length of time a person can be infected and contagious without showing symptoms, mortality rates, and length of time before the infection rate stabilizes globally.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Market Compass: Recent data reveal the economic impact of coronavirus
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Last week both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite indexes hit all-time highs mid-week before falling significantly at the end of the week on fears about the novel coronavirus (also known as COVID-19) impacting economic growth. Concerns about the contagion were amplified by the release of US Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) flash data for February.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Market Compass: The market impact of coronavirus has begun to spread
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The floodgates are opening. Companies are beginning to warn that the coronavirus outbreak will impact earnings, and stocks have begun to react negatively. Yesterday, Apple announced that the contagion will cause it to miss revenue forecasts for the quarter. The problems are on both the sales and production ends: Most Apple stores in China remain closed, and while Apple factories there have reopened, they are not operating at full capacity but instead are slowly ramping up production. In addition, Tesla and Alibaba have recently provided coronavirus-related earnings warnings. Alibaba has gone so far as to label the coronavirus outbreak a “black swan event.”
Market Outlooks
Weekly Market Compass: Three key takeaways from the Fed’s Monetary Policy Report
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In last week’s blog, I noted that what I would be following most closely that week was the release of the Federal Reserve’s Monetary Policy Report, because it provides insight on what the Fed is thinking. On Friday, the Fed released this semi-annual report in advance of Fed Chair Jay Powell’s Humphrey-Hawkins testimony before Congress on Feb. 11 and 12.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Market Compass: Three issues that could keep global markets reeling
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Last week was a momentous one for markets, with coronavirus fears gripping markets and creating a risk-off environment. Stocks sold off while yields on government bonds also fell.