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Market Outlooks
Weekly Market Compass: Powell pledges to support the economy, but notes more Congressional help may be needed
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Last week saw a massive sell-off for stocks globally. The initial trigger seems to have come from US Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell’s press conference following the June 9-10 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).
Market Outlooks
Weekly Market Compass: Encouraging signs were seen in job creation, manufacturing and service activity, and auto sales
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The last time I used the term “green shoots” was the late spring and summer of 2009.
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Weekly Market Compass: The WPA put millions back to work during the Great Depression. Could this be a model for 2020 and beyond?
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Unemployment rates for many countries are sky high and likely to remain high for some time.
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Weekly Market Compass: US-China tensions could be the biggest risk to US stocks this year
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In the last several weeks, stocks have exhibited weakness and higher volatility. I am convinced that rising US-China tensions are behind this, and that the potential for a reignition of the US-China tariff war could be the single biggest risk to the US stock market this year.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Market Compass: Some countries and states are easing lockdowns, while politicians debate what to do next
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One month ago in this blog, I noted that April would be a critical month to gauge the global response to the COVID-19 pandemic.
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Weekly Market Compass: Congress readies for negotiations over the next stimulus bill, while governors decide when and how to re-open state economies
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For months, I have talked about the importance of policy in combatting the COVID-19 crisis: health policy, monetary policy, and fiscal policy.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Market Compass: The Federal Reserve unveils more tools to help the US economy while Congress debates its next step
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A great deal of news has been announced over the last week, and it can be difficult to determine what’s the most meaningful for markets. Here are the items I’m focused on this week.
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Weekly Market Compass: Assessing the globe’s three-pronged policy response to coronavirus
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he coronavirus pandemic is spreading in Europe, the UK, Canada, and the US — and economic activity is grinding to a halt in some sectors as discretionary spending and activity have been sharply reduced in favor of basic needs.
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Weekly Market Compass: Could the surge in market volatility signal the end of the current market cycle?
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Last Friday, Russia surprised markets by refusing the production cuts the rest of OPEC+ supported — cuts that were needed to stabilize oil prices in the face of the coronavirus-related hit to global demand. Saudi Arabia responded over the weekend by announcing an actual increase in oil production. This comes on the heels of an announcement by Italy effectively shutting down much of northern Italy.
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Weekly Market Compass: As markets struggle, where do global economies go from here?
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We have seen a rapid and dramatic market correction as a result of the news flow around the COVID-19 outbreak. This appears to be an overreaction, in my view — but I would not be surprised to see the sell-off continue as uncertainty remains high on key issues: ease of transmission, length of time a person can be infected and contagious without showing symptoms, mortality rates, and length of time before the infection rate stabilizes globally.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Market Compass: Recent data reveal the economic impact of coronavirus
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Last week both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite indexes hit all-time highs mid-week before falling significantly at the end of the week on fears about the novel coronavirus (also known as COVID-19) impacting economic growth. Concerns about the contagion were amplified by the release of US Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) flash data for February.
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Weekly Market Compass: The market impact of coronavirus has begun to spread
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The floodgates are opening. Companies are beginning to warn that the coronavirus outbreak will impact earnings, and stocks have begun to react negatively. Yesterday, Apple announced that the contagion will cause it to miss revenue forecasts for the quarter. The problems are on both the sales and production ends: Most Apple stores in China remain closed, and while Apple factories there have reopened, they are not operating at full capacity but instead are slowly ramping up production. In addition, Tesla and Alibaba have recently provided coronavirus-related earnings warnings. Alibaba has gone so far as to label the coronavirus outbreak a “black swan event.”