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Market Outlooks
AAM Viewpoints: Earnings Recession Likely – Why This Time Might Be Different
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First quarter earnings season is upon us and for the first time since the second quarter of 2016, the S&P 500 Index will most likely report a decline in aggregate year-over-year earnings. Piling on, estimates for the second quarter are essentially flat and will likely be revised into negative territory if the downward trend continues. This sets up the possibility of back-to-back quarters of negative earnings growth or an “Earnings Recession” which typically does not bode well for the equity market.
Market Outlooks
AAM Viewpoints – It’s All About the Income
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While one can be certain of very little in the “world” of fixed income investing, history shows us time and time again that total returns rely on “time in the market, not timing the market.” The closest thing to a universal truth for fixed income investors is that long-term returns are almost always dominated by coupon and income.
Market Outlooks
AAM Viewpoints: Valuation Brief - Size, Sector, and Style
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Since the 4th quarter sell off, equity markets have come back with a vengeance. The S&P 500 is up 13.11% year to date (as of 3/15/19), while the S&P 400 is up 14.39%, and S&P 600 is up 12.42%. With such a rally already on the books, I want to hone in on where we still see some value.
Market Outlooks
From Curve Inversion to Value Conclusion?
The hot topic of the week is the inversion of certain yield curve metrics as evidenced by the near hyperbolic increase in web searches for “recession” and “yield curve.” We have written about the curve’s inversion over the last 18 months and why the broad market interpretation may be a bit skewed today than it has in the past, with a few highlighted here.
Market Outlooks
The Federal Reserve: Give the People What They Want
The FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting was highly anticipated but only in the sense that many were looking for confirmation on the degree of dovishness that matched the market’s belief. It has shifted from not being restrictive to stepping toward more accommodative.
Market Outlooks
AAM Viewpoints: Checking All the Boxes
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The indefatigable bull market may be a pleasant surprise to some, but certainly a nagging disappointment to perennial bears. For the ardent bulls, its elasticity is without precedent and very rewarding for those with the conviction to stay the course through periods of heightened volatility.
Market Outlooks
AAM Viewpoints: Both Investors and Led Zeppelin Ask, “Hey, Hey What Can I Do?”
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During a meeting with a handful of financial representatives in early January, with the underlying context of a flat yield curve, the single most relevant question on their collective minds was, “What should fixed income investors do with regard to their current and future investments?”
Behavioral Finance
Keeping Emotions in Check – A Historical Guide to Market Volatility
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One of the biggest challenges in investing is to stay focused and on course. Investors must look at the markets from a historical perspective for broader context, and to better understand why it is important to stay the course during both calm and perilous markets.