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Fixed Income Insights
A Mostly Benign Outlook for U.S. Inflation
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The stabilization of U.S. economic growth amid unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus has raised questions about the likelihood of inflation returning. Global Head of Fixed Income Jim Cielinski explains why he does not see significant risk of sustained higher inflation materializing in the next few years – but cautions that short-term spikes are possible and that investors should evaluate the diversification that their fixed income portfolios provide.
Fixed Income Insights
November 2020 Fixed Income Market Update
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In our view, while elections have consequences, the consequences are rarely as stark or as predictable as prognosticators suggest.
Fixed Income Insights
October Fixed Income Market Update
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In our view, while economic data has been generally improving, higher frequency data such as elevated jobless claims and small business employment highlight the risk that the recovery could stall absent additional fiscal stimulus. Given tensions and political posturing entering the last stages of election season, short-term we believe risk premiums should be higher on the margin until resolution of the election.
Fixed Income Insights
Fed Moves to Average Inflation Targeting
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Fed policymakers will not tighten monetary policy until inflation remains above 2% and job gains are robust.
Fixed Income Insights
Interest rates: Lower for longer...or forever?
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On September 16, 2020, the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) left interest rates near zero and signaled that it expects to hold them there through at least 2023, adding outcome based guidance. The statement follows the new long-term policy framework announced by Chair Jay Powell in August at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s annual Jackson Hole conference. The Fed notes that rates will remain near zero “until labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with the Committee’s assessments of maximum employment and inflation has risen to 2 percent and is on track to moderately exceed 2 percent for some time.” We didn’t get a precise definition of what a moderate overshoot would look like, allowing the Fed to retain some flexibility.
Fixed Income Insights
Attractive Yields, Slowing Bank Loan Downgrades Support CLOs
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Lower CLO issuance and slowing loan downgrades, along with some attractive yields, have produced value in certain CLOs.
Fixed Income Insights
The Dire Outlook for Bonds in the Wake of COVID-19
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Over the coming decade or two, bonds are unlikely to fulfill their dual role of income and capital preservation. Bond investors will be forced to choose between income or capital preservation, and there is a good chance they could end up with neither.
Fixed Income Insights
Fixed Income Market Update
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In our view, monetary and fiscal policy have done a tremendous job in papering over fundamental uncertainty. Read more for the news & nuggets
Fixed Income Insights
Municipal Fixed Income: Bluebirds fly
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We focus on the strong recovery in the muni market over the second quarter, which proved to be illuminating to municipal investors on a couple fronts.
Fixed Income Insights
Improving Credit Quality Boosts High Yield Bonds
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The high yield bond sector represents attractive value because of its improving credit quality and inexpensive valuations.