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Policy and Regulatory Commentary
Potential Winners and Losers From Bidens Climate
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Biden's climate policies aim to create jobs, modernize critical infrastructure, and support the greening of U.S. industry.
Policy and Regulatory Commentary
COVID-19 isn’t going away
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Colossal policy responses in the second quarter reassured investors that the U.S. economy can weather the COVID-19 downturn, with a relatively quick return to risk assets pushing the S&P 500® up 20.5% for the period, its best quarter since 1998. After bottoming in March, U.S. stocks rose as much as 44% before the rally stalled a bit over the last few weeks of the quarter. We saw a few signs of hesitation for more policy among lawmakers as indicators improved, but overall both Congress and the Federal Reserve (Fed) remain prepared to do more.
Policy and Regulatory Commentary
The U.S.-China relationship in a changing global economy
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An inevitable blame game between the U.S. and China has followed COVID-19, but the crisis has really just extended the “trust deficit” that has been steadily building between the two countries in recent years. Though the “Phase One” agreement between the countries remains intact, it is very fragile and China is turning to a more domestic focus. The U.S.-China relationship, however, remains pivotal for the global economy, and in our mini-forum devoted to the topic, we began with a discussion of the relationship from China’s perspective.
Policy and Regulatory Commentary
U.S. presidential election outlook
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As the 2020 election season heats up and President Trump’s odds of winning continue to run cold, we believe it is important to understand the investment implications of a potential change in government versus the status quo. We have outlined the policy implications of the three most likely election outcomes: a Democratic sweep, a Biden presidency with a Republican Senate and a Trump presidency with a Republican Senate. This analysis assumes that Democrats hold the House, which we believe is highly likely.
Policy and Regulatory Commentary
Fiscal policy matters
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Any proposal for a Phase 4 stimulus package must balance when and how to bring Americans back to work safely
Policy and Regulatory Commentary
Higher Tax Rates Expected in Biden Administration
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A Biden administration is expected to propose higher tax rates to finance various domestic programs.
Policy and Regulatory Commentary
2020 Midyear Market Outlook: Policy, Politics, and Populism
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While the coronavirus crisis dominated the policy agenda in early 2020, investors will need to monitor a host of other risks in the second half.
Policy and Regulatory Commentary
Troubled Small Business Relief Program a Stopgap Measure
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T. Rowe Price expects additional funding for the Paycheck Protection Program to aid small businesses beyond the July 31 expiration date.
Policy and Regulatory Commentary
Consensus Expectations May Be Overestimating the Recovery Trajectory
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T. Rowe Price believes current consensus expectations regarding the coronavirus may be overestimating the trajectory for recovery in the U.S.
Policy and Regulatory Commentary
Economic Indicators Suggest President Trump's Reelection
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In testimony on Capitol Hill this week, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell repeatedly praised the strength of the U.S. economy across multiple indicators. He pointed to an historically-low unemployment rate, rising wages, and continual, moderate overall growth. Powell has a notably turbulent relationship with President Donald Trump, but his assessment should have been music to the ears of top White House and Trump campaign officials (even if the president could not help live-Tweeting his criticism of Powell’s testimony). The economy, after all, is historically perhaps the most reliable presidential election indicator.