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Macroeconomic & Geopolitical
Anatomy of a Recession: Will the consumer bend or break?
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The labor market is a key area ClearBridge Investments are scrutinizing for signs that aggressive action by the Fed is dampening inflation.
Macroeconomic & Geopolitical
Anatomy of a Recession: Not Your Father’s Energy Crisis
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The economic outlook bears little resemblance to the early pandemic, with consumption and business activity likely to slow from elevated levels but remain positive.
Manager & Investment Selection
MONEYBALL INVESTING: THE REAL REASON SWINGING FOR THE FENCES IS BAD FOR YOUR PORTFOLIO
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One of the more iconic scenes in the movie, Moneyball, involves the baseball scouts discussing various players’ abilities. They note a player’s “classy” swing and then move on to his girlfriend’s looks for an assessment of his in-game proficiency. It’s both darkly humorous and a sly indictment of the flawed mechanics by which scouts judge players.
Investing Ideas
THE ARITHMETIC OF ASYMMETRY
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Anyone who has played a casual game of darts, say, at a bar or in the basement, knows an overarching rule of the game: it gets harder as it progresses. While rule systems vary, most games start with a wide-open board full of possibilities. But then, by the end, you’re aiming for the Double 18 and only the Double 18 to win. In short, it’s a game of precision that seems easy at first but becomes very, very hard by the end.
Market Outlooks
The More Things Change...
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The disappointing August jobs report was primarily due to the Delta variant, but sets up a potential goldilocks scenario for investors.
Macroeconomic & Geopolitical
Recession Indicators: Labor Measures Show Improvement
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ClearBridge Investments believe an improving jobs market will help drive further upside to consumption and GDP expectations as individual stimulus payments begin to wane.