report by BlackRock
Results for ""
Behavioral Finance
The Future of Risk Preferences & Goals-Based Planning
Risk preferences are an important part of the financial planning process, but it needs to be considered against goals. Goal setting is where the magic happens. Risk capacity, risk required and risk reactivity are all pivotal inputs in a goals-based framework.
Market Outlooks
The stock market and the economy: Two different animals
This piece is approved to use with clients.
COVID-19 has cut a swathe through the world economy thanks to government mandated lock-downs and restrictions. No business closes its doors voluntarily and no individuals enjoy confinement to “barracks” for months on end. It is therefore essential that there is an appropriate reckoning when the pandemic passes.
Market Outlooks
The Fed’s new framework and its evolving reaction function
This piece is approved to use with clients.
Amid an accelerating election season, ongoing pandemic and a return to partisan gridlock, the Federal Reserve (Fed) has been a bit less prominent in the news cycle lately. However, at the central bank’s annual August retreat in Jackson Hole, Chairman Jerome Powell announced amendments to the Fed’s Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy, which had been largely unchanged since 2012. At a recent mini-forum on this topic, we discussed the significance of this change and its implications for future Fed policy and for investors.
Fixed Income Insights
October Fixed Income Market Update
This piece is approved to use with clients.
In our view, while economic data has been generally improving, higher frequency data such as elevated jobless claims and small business employment highlight the risk that the recovery could stall absent additional fiscal stimulus. Given tensions and political posturing entering the last stages of election season, short-term we believe risk premiums should be higher on the margin until resolution of the election.
Market Outlooks
Turning up the heat on a boiling pot
This piece is approved to use with clients.
The passing of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg has created a vacancy in the U.S. Supreme Court with only weeks until the November election. As the country awaits President Trump’s nominee, pundits on both sides of the aisle are claiming this process will strengthen their election chances. We see this process as primarily exacerbating the partisanship of U.S. voters and it is unclear which party will able to drive greater voter turnout or sway more independents
Fixed Income Insights
Interest rates: Lower for longer...or forever?
This piece is approved to use with clients.
On September 16, 2020, the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) left interest rates near zero and signaled that it expects to hold them there through at least 2023, adding outcome based guidance. The statement follows the new long-term policy framework announced by Chair Jay Powell in August at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s annual Jackson Hole conference. The Fed notes that rates will remain near zero “until labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with the Committee’s assessments of maximum employment and inflation has risen to 2 percent and is on track to moderately exceed 2 percent for some time.” We didn’t get a precise definition of what a moderate overshoot would look like, allowing the Fed to retain some flexibility.
Policy and Regulatory Commentary
Behavioral Advisor: Your Investments are Non-Partisan
With the election year fury reaching its apex, it is easy to believe that political outcomes in November will have a significant impact on your investments.
Market Outlooks
Focus on Equities: Taking the Long View
This piece is approved to use with clients.
Following a severe sell-off in the first quarter, global equity markets rebounded in the second quarter. Any number of scenarios could play out—how do we approach uncertainty?
Market Outlooks
Looking Ahead From the Market Rally
This piece is approved to use with clients.
The unprecedented scale of the global fiscal and monetary policy response helped ease financial conditions during the second quarter of 2020. Looking ahead, we cover our latest thinking on the aggregate risk-for-reward picture in global markets.
Market Outlooks
Finding Dividends in Today’s Markets
This piece is approved to use with clients.
George Metrou, portfolio manager for the Dividend Select Equity Portfolios, talks about the poor performance of dividend-paying stocks so far in 2020, despite their reputation for being defensive. He also discusses why he holds cash, his thoughts on companies cutting dividends, and his outlook for income going forward.
Market Outlooks
Advisor Perspectives: CAPE is a Very Noisy Market Predictor
Analysts have many ways to estimate expected market returns. The challenge is to identify those few that provide usable information for making investment decisions. In this article, I discuss one of the common mistakes made in this type of analysis and why the cyclically adjusted PE (CAPE), developed by Robert Shiller, is not nearly as reliable a predictor of market returns as most claim it to be.