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Fixed Income Insights
Did the Fed just go Minority Report?
We believe the Fed is taking a risk — one we hope works — in shifting from reactive to preemptive monetary policy. It was not that long ago that the Fed was more forthright about the uncertainty inherent in economic forecasting as Chairman Powell used the analogy of walking into a dark room and slowing down to avoid furniture as an analogy for the Fed’s situation. Today, they seem more certain that they know the future and aim to alter it.
Market Outlooks
BMO International Insights - Crazy global environment merits cautious approach
The IMF believes the world has too much debt, trade wars are destabilizing and anti-growth, monetary policy has run its course and productivity growth remains comfortably below historic norms.
Client Life Events
The family conversation you should not avoid: How to discuss your legacy
This piece is approved to use with clients.
Everyone needs to take time to consider what they are leaving behind. What is left behind is often far more than can be measured in monetary terms. In addition to material worldly assets, a person leaves behind a legacy representing their values, plans, beliefs and cherished memories.
Client Life Events
The aging economy
This piece is approved to use with clients.
People are living longer than ever before. However, while advances in medicine, health, nutrition and fitness have extended the lifespan of Americans, the number of years they spend in retirement has not changed much over the last generation because they are also working longer.
Behavioral Finance
We Don’t Have to Have a Recession
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There is not a “natural” economic reason for this expansion to end.
Behavioral Finance
Long-Term is Longer Than You Think
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Investment time horizon is a critical concept in building wealth. Most investors have very long investment time horizons, typically decades or more.
Behavioral Finance
Looking Past the Headlines
We are experiencing a new peak in the rhetoric around trade, geo-politics, the economy and the business cycle. We have also seen increased market volatility.
Goals/Needs-Based Investing
Behavioral Advisor: The Power of Planning
This piece is approved to use with clients.
Planning is a powerful tool to help investors succeed and achieve better outcomes. The table below highlights the benefits of planning taken from a study on retirement planning among Americans over age 50.
Behavioral Finance
Behavioral Advisor: Why Invest Now? A Tale of Three Investors
This piece is approved to use with clients.
“Now’s not a good time to invest,” or “I’m waiting for the right conditions” are familiar refrains we hear from investors and advisors alike. Fortunately for long-term investors who don’t take regular withdrawals from their portfolios, the sequence of returns doesn’t affect the ultimate investment outcome.
Behavioral Finance
Behavioral Advisor: Does the Economy Predict Stock Returns?
Investors, economists and the media spend an enormous amount of time and energy trying to forecast the economy. The idea is that forecasting economic growth will give us an idea of where the stock market is headed. Surprisingly, no predictive relationship exists between current economic conditions and the current stock market.
Manager & Investment Selection
Strategy Series: Strategy Preference Can Indicate Expected Stock Market Return
Rather surprisingly, the equity strategy framework can provide an estimate of current expected stock market returns. This is accomplished by measuring the recent investor response to each strategy, which, it turns out, captures the deep behavioral currents driving market returns. The resulting information is useful when managing equity market exposure.
Behavioral Finance
Diversify by Strategy to Stay on Track
It’s important for investors to understand how different investment strategies work and how each performs under various market conditions.