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Market Outlooks
Back to the future of fixed income, part 2: The search for more income
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In our original Back to the future of fixed income, we explored the value of and demand for income in an era of historically low government yields. For a sequel, we delve into an oft-maligned and misunderstood market segment: high yield. Described less generously as ‘junk’, we see a complex and evolving market segment, one that is essential in any conversation about income.
Market Outlooks
Forget The Fox…What Do The Dots Say?
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“What does the fox say?” got me thinking about last week’s Federal Reserve meeting and “What do the dots say?”
Market Outlooks
Don’t Call It A Comeback
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Despite a down day Friday, it was a good week for the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite, with the index up more than 3% for the week.
Market Outlooks
Inflation: base effects versus spare capacity
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The prospect of inflation remains a hot topic for both investors and policy makers. Chair Powell, in his testimony to Congress this month stressed that ‘inflation risks are to the downside’. He stated that inflation in the coming months is likely to jump as a result of ‘base effects.’
Market Outlooks
Inflation: Much discussed but rarely witnessed
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Alongside the prospect for a strong economic recovery, a growing debate has sprung up around the path of inflation and whether it could derail growth.
Market Outlooks
To paraphrase Yogi Berra, what can we observe by watching gold and copper?
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The late, great Yogi Berra, in addition to winning 10 World Series with the New York Yankees, was the creator of numerous classic malapropisms, including, “You can observe a lot by just watching.”
Market Outlooks
In a big November, small caps come up REALLY BIG
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As we take pen to paper for this Weekly Wire we have one trading day left in November, and what a November it has been for our country, our economy, and our stock market:
Market Outlooks
Considering the long-term economic consequences of COVID-19
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COVID-19 is first and foremost a healthcare crisis, and its impact on the world has been devastating. That said, as investors, we must try to determine the long-term economic consequences of the pandemic.
Market Outlooks
The stock market and the economy: Two different animals
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COVID-19 has cut a swathe through the world economy thanks to government mandated lock-downs and restrictions. No business closes its doors voluntarily and no individuals enjoy confinement to “barracks” for months on end. It is therefore essential that there is an appropriate reckoning when the pandemic passes.
Market Outlooks
The Fed’s new framework and its evolving reaction function
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Amid an accelerating election season, ongoing pandemic and a return to partisan gridlock, the Federal Reserve (Fed) has been a bit less prominent in the news cycle lately. However, at the central bank’s annual August retreat in Jackson Hole, Chairman Jerome Powell announced amendments to the Fed’s Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy, which had been largely unchanged since 2012. At a recent mini-forum on this topic, we discussed the significance of this change and its implications for future Fed policy and for investors.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Wire: Quarter-end Q&A 3Q2020
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Tim Holland, CFA, Global Investment Strategist, asks and answers three top-of-mind questions as investors receive their quarterly statements and reflect on the past quarter:
Market Outlooks
Turning up the heat on a boiling pot
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The passing of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg has created a vacancy in the U.S. Supreme Court with only weeks until the November election. As the country awaits President Trump’s nominee, pundits on both sides of the aisle are claiming this process will strengthen their election chances. We see this process as primarily exacerbating the partisanship of U.S. voters and it is unclear which party will able to drive greater voter turnout or sway more independents