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Market Outlooks
The state of the municipal market
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What caused the extreme municipal market volatility in March 2020? In a nutshell, fear and panic. But that’s understandable in the face of a virulent, deadly enemy that you can’t see and is difficult to contain without mass testing. The unknown is menacing, and investors reacted as they have historically — by raising cash and improving liquidity. In many ways, it is similar to the 2008-09 crisis when the bursting housing bubble caused an indiscriminate rush to sell any assets other than Treasuries. What was shocking this time was the unprecedented speed of the sell-off, and the ensuing recovery. Even after 30 years in the business, it was quite alarming.
Fixed Income Insights
Neither bulls nor bears last forever
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While bull markets don’t last forever, neither do bear markets. Since 1928, the strength and duration of S&P 500® bull markets has meaningfully outweighed that of bear markets.
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Market Outlooks
The Brexit Election: What now for the UK and the EU?
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Few political earthquakes come as big as this one. Boris Johnson has defied his critics and skeptics, including many in his own Party, and redrawn the political map of the UK. It is no small triumph that will become part of British folklore. It takes the Conservative electoral support back to the Thatcher years whilst wrenching seats from Labour that had, in many cases, been regarded as untouchable since the 1930s.
Market Outlooks
Fixed Income Market Update
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U.S. economic data surprised to the upside in December with strong employment and growth results and the Fed remained on hold as expected. Progress on tariffs and U.K. election results lowered geopolitical noise for the time being. These developments led to continued improvement in risk sentiment.
Market Outlooks
Low volatility equities: Why now, why active?
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Against the backdrop of a continuing bull market in equities, investor uncertainty has increased with a number of key economic and geopolitical risks, resulting in rising market volatility.
Investors have logically sought to de-risk* portfolios, and given the low interest rate environment, they have rotated significant amounts of money into defensive equities, resulting in stretched valuations for certain pockets of these stocks. At the same time, equity upside remains attractive as accommodative policy and the potential for trade resolution between the U.S. and China could support future gains. As a result, investors now face three competing objectives: how to de-risk portfolios, without overpaying for defensive equities, while maintaining equity upside.
Market Outlooks
Growth vs. Value in global developed markets
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Since the mid-1970s, value stocks have generally outperformed growth stocks in developed markets around the globe. The current cycle of growth’s outperformance, starting in 2007, has had both the longest duration and highest magnitude in history.
Market Outlooks
Global Corporate Debt
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US Dollar denominated corporate debt has the highest yield and makes up 66% of global issuance, underscoring its attractiveness in this low rate environment.
Fixed Income Insights
Did the Fed just go Minority Report?
We believe the Fed is taking a risk — one we hope works — in shifting from reactive to preemptive monetary policy. It was not that long ago that the Fed was more forthright about the uncertainty inherent in economic forecasting as Chairman Powell used the analogy of walking into a dark room and slowing down to avoid furniture as an analogy for the Fed’s situation. Today, they seem more certain that they know the future and aim to alter it.
Market Outlooks
BMO International Insights - Crazy global environment merits cautious approach
The IMF believes the world has too much debt, trade wars are destabilizing and anti-growth, monetary policy has run its course and productivity growth remains comfortably below historic norms.