report by BlackRock
Results for ""
Market Outlooks
Virus starts with v but ends with u-shaped
This piece is approved to use with clients.
2020 began largely as we expected from an economic perspective, but as the first quarter ended it was difficult even to remember what “normal” economic times looked like, that is, before COVID-19 mushroomed and became a global health crisis.
Before the situation deteriorated in late February, many economists expected the economic effects of the virus to be primarily felt in the first and second quarters with a “v-shaped” recovery to follow. Now many expect a “u-shaped” recovery occurring perhaps by year-end. Economic indicators can lag the headlines, but U.S. unemployment had already begun to spike as the first quarter ended with more to come, likely climbing to double digits as large segments of the economy remain shut down in an effort to contain the virus. We have seen second-quarter annualized GDP estimates ranging from -5% to -30%, but the unprecedented combination of a pandemic and the modern global economy makes this very difficult to call. The numbers will be painful, regardless of the precise magnitude. In terms of the human cost, the pain is already acute.
Market Outlooks
Corporate credit spreads widened aggressively in March 2020
This piece is approved to use with clients.
Credit markets have seen extreme repricing over the past month as a result of the market stress caused by coronavirus and its impact to the economy. The period through March 26 saw some of the most aggressive corporate spread widening in history, with the worst days experiencing almost twice as much widening as any day in 2008. Global investment grade corporate credit spreads reached 340 basis points after having started the year at 102, and we saw global high yield spreads widen past 1,000 basis points as an index, which is generally the level considered the threshold for individual bonds to be considered part of distressed indices.
Market Outlooks
Examining the relationship between social distancing and economic activity
This piece is approved to use with clients.
As the global spread of COVID-19 continues, the United States’ timeline to practice social distancing has now been extended through the end of April. The crisis continues to evolve, leading to questions of how long the social distance measures will remain, how severe will the infection rate get, and when will peak cases be reached. Gauging the length of these measures is crucial to anticipate the economic impacts to U.S. businesses and consumers.
Market Outlooks
The meaty realities of food production
This piece is approved to use with clients.
Initiatives such as Veganuary and meat-free Mondays are a sign of how patterns of food consumption are changing. People are increasingly aware that their eating habits can come with dramatic environmental and social costs. As investors, we are particularly interested in how companies are managing ESG risks in both their operations and supply chains, as well as whether they are seeking opportunities in high-growth areas such as vegan protein.
Market Outlooks
The state of the municipal market
This piece is approved to use with clients.
What caused the extreme municipal market volatility in March 2020? In a nutshell, fear and panic. But that’s understandable in the face of a virulent, deadly enemy that you can’t see and is difficult to contain without mass testing. The unknown is menacing, and investors reacted as they have historically — by raising cash and improving liquidity. In many ways, it is similar to the 2008-09 crisis when the bursting housing bubble caused an indiscriminate rush to sell any assets other than Treasuries. What was shocking this time was the unprecedented speed of the sell-off, and the ensuing recovery. Even after 30 years in the business, it was quite alarming.
Fixed Income Insights
Neither bulls nor bears last forever
This piece is approved to use with clients.
While bull markets don’t last forever, neither do bear markets. Since 1928, the strength and duration of S&P 500® bull markets has meaningfully outweighed that of bear markets.
|
Market Outlooks
The Brexit Election: What now for the UK and the EU?
This piece is approved to use with clients.
Few political earthquakes come as big as this one. Boris Johnson has defied his critics and skeptics, including many in his own Party, and redrawn the political map of the UK. It is no small triumph that will become part of British folklore. It takes the Conservative electoral support back to the Thatcher years whilst wrenching seats from Labour that had, in many cases, been regarded as untouchable since the 1930s.
Market Outlooks
Fixed Income Market Update
This piece is approved to use with clients.
U.S. economic data surprised to the upside in December with strong employment and growth results and the Fed remained on hold as expected. Progress on tariffs and U.K. election results lowered geopolitical noise for the time being. These developments led to continued improvement in risk sentiment.
Market Outlooks
Low volatility equities: Why now, why active?
This piece is approved to use with clients.
Against the backdrop of a continuing bull market in equities, investor uncertainty has increased with a number of key economic and geopolitical risks, resulting in rising market volatility.
Investors have logically sought to de-risk* portfolios, and given the low interest rate environment, they have rotated significant amounts of money into defensive equities, resulting in stretched valuations for certain pockets of these stocks. At the same time, equity upside remains attractive as accommodative policy and the potential for trade resolution between the U.S. and China could support future gains. As a result, investors now face three competing objectives: how to de-risk portfolios, without overpaying for defensive equities, while maintaining equity upside.
Market Outlooks
Foreign stocks aren't as foreign as you think
Have you ever done an inventory of the products that you use every day? I recently did this exercise and was shocked by the domicile of the parent companies.
Market Outlooks
Growth vs. Value in global developed markets
This piece is approved to use with clients.
Since the mid-1970s, value stocks have generally outperformed growth stocks in developed markets around the globe. The current cycle of growth’s outperformance, starting in 2007, has had both the longest duration and highest magnitude in history.