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Market Outlooks
Advisor Perspectives: CAPE is a Very Noisy Market Predictor
Analysts have many ways to estimate expected market returns. The challenge is to identify those few that provide usable information for making investment decisions. In this article, I discuss one of the common mistakes made in this type of analysis and why the cyclically adjusted PE (CAPE), developed by Robert Shiller, is not nearly as reliable a predictor of market returns as most claim it to be.
Market Outlooks
Behavioural Advisor: Beware Predictions and Magic Elixirs
The market and economy have gone through unprecedented events with a global pandemic, the shut-down of economies, massive government intervention and dramatic market swings.
Client Experience
Overconfident? Cognitively Rigid? How Investors Can Make Better Decisions by Dealing With Emotions and Biases
This piece is approved to use with clients.
Sarah Newcomb, director of behavioral science at Morningstar, Inc., discusses emotions brought on by market loss, talks about how they can affect decisions, and offers some ways to cope. Ryan Murphy, head of decision sciences at Morningstar Investment Management, discusses cognitive biases to watch out for and ways investors can make better decisions.
Market Outlooks
‘Essential Businesses’: Managing Focused Stock Portfolios in a COVID-19 World
This piece is approved to use with clients.
Our equity portfolio managers talk about how they're navigating the COVID-19 crisis and their outlook.
Market Outlooks
U.S. vs. International Stocks: Will Next Decade’s Performance Look Different From the Last?
This piece is approved to use with clients.
International equity markets have trailed the U.S. for more than a decade. Does that make this asset class an opportunity or a value trap? We describe why we think international markets are poised for outperformance.
Market Outlooks
After the Rebound, Is It Time to Sell?
This piece is approved to use with clients.
We believe markets have priced in a fairly optimistic economic recovery from the coronavirus crisis, but some markets have increased significantly, while others have lagged. Here’s our take on long-term opportunities.
Behavioral Finance
Behavioral Lessons in Difficult Times
This piece is approved to use with clients.
Even in the best of times, investing can be challenging. Ryan Murphy, Morningstar Investment Management head of Decision Sciences, discusses how, in difficult times, it can be helpful for investors to take pause.
Business Development
Advisor Profile: How Has COVID-19 Affected Derek Notman's Practice? 'Not at all'
This piece is approved to use with clients.
Derek Notman is a virtual advisor. That doesn't mean he just uses video conferencing to talk with clients. His entire practice is virtual, and he's helping other advisors do the same.