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Policy and Regulatory Commentary
The Impact of COVID-19 on State Budgets Will Ripple to the Broader Economy
What type of economic recovery will the U.S. see in the coming months? U, V, or W—or will it be more like a swoosh?
Behavioral Finance
Focused expertise
There have been many restrictions placed on the normal rhythms of life in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The interactions we typically take for granted such as going to restaurants, spending time with friends, working out at the gym, and traveling on vacation have all been curtailed in an effort to tame the pandemic.
Market Outlooks
The market as a leading indicator…for the market
We frequently write about the stock market as a leading indicator of the real economy. The idea being
the market will anticipate the economic environment to come, rallying in the face of awful economic news and selling off in the face of constructive economic news.
Policy and Regulatory Commentary
How the Federal Reserve is like Spike from Happy Days
As a child of the 70s, I have come to embrace a few, eternal truths: disco should have never died; big collars were a good idea, and the Fonz was the coolest guy who ever lived. Speaking of the Fonz, I am reminded of a Happy Days episode featuring Spike, the Fonz’s nephew, and how that episode and Spike can help us all better understand monetary policy today. Seriously.
Policy and Regulatory Commentary
Business Liability Protection: The Red Line for the Next COVID-19 Relief Package
“We have to get our country open,” President Donald Trump said on Tuesday.
Fixed Income Insights
Weekly Fixed Income Commentary: Treasury yield curve steepens amid risk-friendly sentiment
This piece is approved to use with clients.
10- and 30-year Treasury yields rose last week while shorter maturity rates fell, steepening the Treasury yield curve.
Market Outlooks
Pick a letter, any letter
If one considers that the coronavirus didn’t hit the US economy hard until mid-March, and that our economy has been shut down since, a recession is a foregone conclusion, with Q2 GDP expected to contract about 30% Q to Q
Macroeconomic & Geopolitical
Creative Destruction
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Economist Joseph Schumpeter coined the phrase “creative destruction” to describe the way innovation in the manufacturing process increases productivity while destroying the old way of doing things as a new efficient way is developed.
Market Outlooks
THE GREAT STAY-IN
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IMPACTS OF COVID-19 ON PRIVATE CAPITAL MARKETS