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Market Outlooks
THE GREAT STAY-IN
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IMPACTS OF COVID-19 ON PRIVATE CAPITAL MARKETS
Market Outlooks
[Webinar] Investing with a Goals-Based Framework
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Investing with a Goals-Based Framework Webinar
Date: April 1, 2020
Time: 12 PM ET / 11 AM CT
Market Outlooks
Weekly Wire: When it rains
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Most of the focus on COVID-19 has understandably been on its physical impact, but the psychological impact of a pandemic is also worth considering. Social interaction is a huge source of psychological wellbeing, and its loss, paired with concerns about the market, as well as the health and wellbeing of loved ones, can begin to take a psychological toll.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Wire: The Fed lowers, Biden rises…Now what?
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Market volatility continued through the last week due to ongoing concerns surrounding the spread of COVID19, the shifting Democratic presidential candidate landscape, and their combined economic impact. We’ve experienced wild daily moves in the S&P 500 Index (S&P 500), but as of Wednesday’s close, we’re just 7.5% below the all-time high reached on February 19.
Market Outlooks
Continuing concerns regarding COVID-19
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The global equity markets have continued their decline, which began on February 20, in response to fears over the COVID-19 (coronavirus) becoming a global pandemic. The S&P 500 Index fell -12.0% from February 20-27 and is on pace for another decline on February 28. International equity markets have fared better, with the MSCI EAFE and MSCI Emerging Markets indices declining -7.4% and -6.6%, respectively. The last six days has been the fastest correction (10% drawdown) on record for the S&P 500 off an all-time high, which has likely exacerbated market fears. With the drawdown, the markets are pricing in significant earnings declines as a result of the virus, and certainly weaker global economic activity.
Policy and Regulatory Commentary
Economic Indicators Suggest President Trump's Reelection
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In testimony on Capitol Hill this week, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell repeatedly praised the strength of the U.S. economy across multiple indicators. He pointed to an historically-low unemployment rate, rising wages, and continual, moderate overall growth. Powell has a notably turbulent relationship with President Donald Trump, but his assessment should have been music to the ears of top White House and Trump campaign officials (even if the president could not help live-Tweeting his criticism of Powell’s testimony). The economy, after all, is historically perhaps the most reliable presidential election indicator.
Policy and Regulatory Commentary
The End of the Caucus?
So that didn’t go as planned. While politicos inside the Beltway and across the country were expecting to get our first real results in the Democratic presidential primary last night, problems with tallying the vote in Iowa have caused a significant delay in reporting the results. In a story posted yesterday, The Associated Press reported Iowa Democratic Party officials had promised that “an early issue with a mobile app designed to report results” would “not hinder the Iowa caucus process.”
Policy and Regulatory Commentary
Do Endorsements Matter? No … and Yes
Last year, we looked at how accurate polls going into the Iowa Caucus have been at predicting the eventual outcome of that state’s first-in-the-nation election. The conclusion, way back then, was that surveys conducted a few months out from voting have not historically been very good at telling us who was going to win.