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Policy and Regulatory Commentary
Behavioral Advisor: Your Investments are Non-Partisan
With the election year fury reaching its apex, it is easy to believe that political outcomes in November will have a significant impact on your investments.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Market Compass: We also discuss a leadership change in Japan, US consumer sentiment, and COVID-19 cases
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Last week brought some major headlines with a new inflation target policy from the Federal Reserve, news of a leadership change in Japan, a decline in US consumer sentiment, and spikes in COVID-19 cases. What are the implications of these events for investors?
Market Outlooks
Weekly Market Compass: It’s important to stay prepared for whatever the market may bring
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It’s August in New England for the Hooper family, which means hot summer days, barbecues, and lots of time in the water. Every year at this time, my thoughts turn to the iconic movie “Jaws,” which, as regular readers of this blog may remember, is another summer tradition for me.
Market Outlooks
Advisor Perspectives: CAPE is a Very Noisy Market Predictor
Analysts have many ways to estimate expected market returns. The challenge is to identify those few that provide usable information for making investment decisions. In this article, I discuss one of the common mistakes made in this type of analysis and why the cyclically adjusted PE (CAPE), developed by Robert Shiller, is not nearly as reliable a predictor of market returns as most claim it to be.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Market Compass: US jobless claims and vaccine developments bring positive news
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Last week, I laid out five things to watch in the month of August. Over the past seven days, we’ve seen new developments in each one. This week, I offer a quick update to each of those five issues, and then highlight positive news for US jobless claims and vaccine development.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Market Compass: This month, we’re tracking fiscal stimulus, virus cases, US-China tensions, the US dollar, and a heavily anticipated VP pick
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We are officially in the “dog days of summer” (in the Northern Hemisphere, anyway).
Market Outlooks
Behavioural Advisor: Beware Predictions and Magic Elixirs
The market and economy have gone through unprecedented events with a global pandemic, the shut-down of economies, massive government intervention and dramatic market swings.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Market Compass: A federal unemployment benefit ends, Congress continues to debate about stimulus, and many fear schools could hasten a ‘second wave’ of virus cases
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Last Friday, my oldest child graduated from high school. Late July is not normally associated with graduations, but we are living in a time of COVID, and so what was supposed to occur two months earlier in the New York area was postponed and rescheduled.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Market Compass: US stocks pressured by rising virus cases and tensions with China
When I was in high school, we read Henry James’ “The Europeans” in our English Literature class.
Active/Passive Management
Advisor Perspectives: The Dawn of a New Active-Equity Era
Is the market environment turning favorable for active equity managers? It seems a strange question to ask in the midst of a pandemic and heightened market volatility, but history tells us that it is during just such turbulent times that active managers excel. There is accumulating evidence that market conditions are growing more attractive for showcasing stock-picking skills.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Market Compass: Another injection of fiscal stimulus may be on the horizon
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I caught a bit of the James Bond movie “Casino Royale” on TV over the weekend.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Market Compass: China’s ability to contain COVID-19 boosts longer-term confidence
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Last week, we saw increases in both the Chinese and US stock markets.