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Macroeconomic & Geopolitical
Corporate earnings: Growth clouds have arrived
While many macro signals have already triggered current recessionary conditions in some pockets of the economy, the 4Q22 inversion of the 3m10y Treasury yield curve means that investors need to prepare portfolios for the volatile period that is likely ahead.
Market Outlooks
Sleeping at Night? Consider Adding an Absolute Return Strategy
Perhaps the most concerning issue for multi-asset investors as we turn to 2023 is diversification—or the lack thereof in recent times. And while this is not the first time that the “traditional” correlation between U.S. Treasuries and equity markets has broken down—people tend to pay less attention when both are producing positive returns—it has been one of the worst years on record for the total return of a 60/40 portfolio in 2022.Herein lies the merits of discussing an absolute return approach with clients.
Market Outlooks
Global Convictions: January 2023 Asset Class Research
This piece is approved to use with clients.
Heading into 2023, bearish sentiment among investors is coming off a very low base, with some of the worst recorded data since tracking started 35 years ago. With a contrarian lens, this could be a positive. However, while the overall valuation landscape has undoubtedly improved, there are many assets which remain around fair value. In such an environment, we continue to balance opportunities against risks.
Behavioral Finance
Market Perspective: There are No Rewards Without Risk
This piece is approved to use with clients.
2022 reminded investors of the risk from investing, but none of this makes losses palatable. As the old axiom goes, “there are no rewards without risk.” Here's perspective from Marta Norton, CIO, Americas, Morningstar Investment Management LLC.
Fixed Income Insights
US core fixed income: Better positioned going into 2023?
This piece is approved to use with clients.
Greg Wilensky, Head of U.S. Fixed Income, discusses his 2023 investment outlook, including the opportunities and risks he sees in U.S. core fixed income as we head into the new year.