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Market Outlooks
Weekly Market Compass: A region-by-region look at our expectations for the remainder of 2020
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The first half of 2020 has been unexpected, to say the very least. Our outlook for the year quickly became obsolete with the rapid spread of COVID-19 and accompanying lockdowns across the globe, which have stymied economic activity and caused an unprecedented destruction of demand.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Market Compass: Evaluating the positive and negative signs over the past week
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Two weeks ago, I wrote about some burgeoning “green shoots” that offered early, encouraging signs of economic recovery around the world.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Market Compass: Powell pledges to support the economy, but notes more Congressional help may be needed
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Last week saw a massive sell-off for stocks globally. The initial trigger seems to have come from US Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell’s press conference following the June 9-10 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).
Market Outlooks
Weekly Market Compass: Encouraging signs were seen in job creation, manufacturing and service activity, and auto sales
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The last time I used the term “green shoots” was the late spring and summer of 2009.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Market Compass: The WPA put millions back to work during the Great Depression. Could this be a model for 2020 and beyond?
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Unemployment rates for many countries are sky high and likely to remain high for some time.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Market Compass: US-China tensions could be the biggest risk to US stocks this year
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In the last several weeks, stocks have exhibited weakness and higher volatility. I am convinced that rising US-China tensions are behind this, and that the potential for a reignition of the US-China tariff war could be the single biggest risk to the US stock market this year.
Behavioral Finance
Invest for The Decade, Not the Year
Sharing helpful data like decade-returns of the market can motivate investors to focus on the long-term and avoid costly behavioral mistakes.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Market Compass: Some countries and states are easing lockdowns, while politicians debate what to do next
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One month ago in this blog, I noted that April would be a critical month to gauge the global response to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Market Compass: Congress readies for negotiations over the next stimulus bill, while governors decide when and how to re-open state economies
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For months, I have talked about the importance of policy in combatting the COVID-19 crisis: health policy, monetary policy, and fiscal policy.
Behavioral Finance
Behavioral Advisor Perspectives and Practices: Practical Planning Is Your Compass
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The next several weeks are going to be challenging for advisors and investors. The reality of the scope and severity of the pandemic along with the associated economic and market damage will hit home raising fear levels to new highs. In these times, it will be hard not to overreact, panic or lose hope. Strong emotions and behavioral biases including, anchoring, loss aversion, cascading and availability bias can cloud our thinking and lead to poor decision making. Engaging in realistic and practical planning discussions along with relevant behavioral coaching can provide essential support during these challenging times.
Market Outlooks
Behavioral Advisor Perspectives and Practices: Drawdown, Turbulence and Recovery
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Everyone breathed a sigh of relief as markets had several positive days. Don’t be surprised, however, if markets drop suddenly and test or breach previous lows several times over the next few weeks or months. Much like flying through a thunderstorm, there are likely to be some bumpy times ahead. No matter how many times you have flown, your heart jumps every time the aircraft drops. Fortunately, there is no need to time the bottom for long-term investors.
Market Outlooks
Behavioral Advisor Perspectives and Practices: Stay Invested Through the Rocky Bottom
One of the biggest challenges for investors is staying invested as markets sell off. Every up and down swing creates strong emotional reactions and constant second guessing. Periods of high volatility can last for weeks or months and are emotionally draining. While it may feel like you are doing nothing by staying invested during these periods, you are likely avoiding costly mistakes by not compounding an already difficult situation.