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Market Outlooks
Vlog: Quarter-end Q&A 2Q2020
Tim Holland, CFA, Global Investment Strategist, asks and answers three top-of-mind questions as investors receive their quarterly statements and reflect on the past quarter.
Market Outlooks
Don’t fight the Fed. And, maybe the Federal Government too
Among the better-known Wall Street maxims is “Don’t fight the Fed,” which speaks to the idea that monetary policy and the trend in interest rates determines the direction of the stock market.
Market Outlooks
Two bits of good news. And, what are two bits, anyway?
The economic headlines of late have been driven by – and understandably so – BIG pieces of news, both bad and good.
Market Outlooks
What small caps might be telling us about the economy and the market
For a big country, we sure have an affinity for little things. Think TV shows: “Tiny House Nation”; sayings: “Big things come in small packages”; and children’s books: “The Little Engine That Could” as being among the more obvious examples of our love of things little or small. It is a love of small things which brings us to the focus of this week’s Weekly Wire, US small cap stocks, and what the asset class might be telling us about the US economy and the US stock market as we approach the second half of 2020.
Market Outlooks
What history will COVID-19 write?
The COVID-19 pandemic has made history in more ways than one, including catalyzing an economic downturn that cost the US more than 20 million jobs and a policy response that saw the Federal Government pass the $2.1 trillion CARES Act, the largest ever US economic rescue package. That said, we don’t think COVID-19 is finished filling up our history books. We think the long-term consequences of the virus could prove much more meaningful than what we have seen to date.
Behavioral Finance
Focused expertise
There have been many restrictions placed on the normal rhythms of life in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The interactions we typically take for granted such as going to restaurants, spending time with friends, working out at the gym, and traveling on vacation have all been curtailed in an effort to tame the pandemic.
Market Outlooks
The market as a leading indicator…for the market
We frequently write about the stock market as a leading indicator of the real economy. The idea being
the market will anticipate the economic environment to come, rallying in the face of awful economic news and selling off in the face of constructive economic news.
Client Relationships
Positioning yourself as a behavioral coach
While there is plenty of economic upside to the specialization required of modern life, one downside is that hyper-specialization can lead to siloed thinking. For a psychologist like me, the hammer that I have (an understanding of the power of behavior) can lead me to see behavioral “nails” everywhere, even in places where they may not truly exist.
Policy and Regulatory Commentary
How the Federal Reserve is like Spike from Happy Days
As a child of the 70s, I have come to embrace a few, eternal truths: disco should have never died; big collars were a good idea, and the Fonz was the coolest guy who ever lived. Speaking of the Fonz, I am reminded of a Happy Days episode featuring Spike, the Fonz’s nephew, and how that episode and Spike can help us all better understand monetary policy today. Seriously.
Market Outlooks
Pick a letter, any letter
If one considers that the coronavirus didn’t hit the US economy hard until mid-March, and that our economy has been shut down since, a recession is a foregone conclusion, with Q2 GDP expected to contract about 30% Q to Q
Macroeconomic & Geopolitical
Creative Destruction
This piece is approved to use with clients.
Economist Joseph Schumpeter coined the phrase “creative destruction” to describe the way innovation in the manufacturing process increases productivity while destroying the old way of doing things as a new efficient way is developed.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Wire: When it rains
This piece is approved to use with clients.
Most of the focus on COVID-19 has understandably been on its physical impact, but the psychological impact of a pandemic is also worth considering. Social interaction is a huge source of psychological wellbeing, and its loss, paired with concerns about the market, as well as the health and wellbeing of loved ones, can begin to take a psychological toll.