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Fixed Income Insights
Interest rates: Lower for longer...or forever?
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On September 16, 2020, the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) left interest rates near zero and signaled that it expects to hold them there through at least 2023, adding outcome based guidance. The statement follows the new long-term policy framework announced by Chair Jay Powell in August at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s annual Jackson Hole conference. The Fed notes that rates will remain near zero “until labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with the Committee’s assessments of maximum employment and inflation has risen to 2 percent and is on track to moderately exceed 2 percent for some time.” We didn’t get a precise definition of what a moderate overshoot would look like, allowing the Fed to retain some flexibility.
Market Outlooks
Market Week in Review: What’s driving the selloff in U.S. markets?
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Market Week in Review is a weekly market update on global investment news in a quick five-minute video format. It gives you easy access to some of our top investment strategists.
Market Outlooks
The great disconnect between the economy and the stock market
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We concluded our March quarter Perspectives with the comment: “Let’s just hope we now don’t have a gigantic bounce in share prices fuelled by the central bank injections, pushing them back to bubble levels. Or, are we, once again, being naïve?” Yes, we were being naïve. The bounce occurred and it had nothing to do with investment fundamentals.
Policy and Regulatory Commentary
COVID-19 isn’t going away
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Colossal policy responses in the second quarter reassured investors that the U.S. economy can weather the COVID-19 downturn, with a relatively quick return to risk assets pushing the S&P 500® up 20.5% for the period, its best quarter since 1998. After bottoming in March, U.S. stocks rose as much as 44% before the rally stalled a bit over the last few weeks of the quarter. We saw a few signs of hesitation for more policy among lawmakers as indicators improved, but overall both Congress and the Federal Reserve (Fed) remain prepared to do more.
Policy and Regulatory Commentary
The U.S.-China relationship in a changing global economy
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An inevitable blame game between the U.S. and China has followed COVID-19, but the crisis has really just extended the “trust deficit” that has been steadily building between the two countries in recent years. Though the “Phase One” agreement between the countries remains intact, it is very fragile and China is turning to a more domestic focus. The U.S.-China relationship, however, remains pivotal for the global economy, and in our mini-forum devoted to the topic, we began with a discussion of the relationship from China’s perspective.
Fixed Income Insights
Fixed Income Market Update
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In our view, monetary and fiscal policy have done a tremendous job in papering over fundamental uncertainty. Read more for the news & nuggets
Fixed Income Insights
Municipal Fixed Income: Bluebirds fly
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We focus on the strong recovery in the muni market over the second quarter, which proved to be illuminating to municipal investors on a couple fronts.
Policy and Regulatory Commentary
U.S. presidential election outlook
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As the 2020 election season heats up and President Trump’s odds of winning continue to run cold, we believe it is important to understand the investment implications of a potential change in government versus the status quo. We have outlined the policy implications of the three most likely election outcomes: a Democratic sweep, a Biden presidency with a Republican Senate and a Trump presidency with a Republican Senate. This analysis assumes that Democrats hold the House, which we believe is highly likely.
Macroeconomic & Geopolitical
Biden goes the predictable route
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After a lengthy vetting process, Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden selected Senator Kamala Harris as his running mate for the 2020 presidential election. Though many names were floated in the past month, Harris has long been considered a favorite for the VP pick. Harris, a 2020 candidate for president herself, fits the bill as an experienced politician with liberal credentials and a knack for fundraising. In the past Biden spoke about the need to pick a VP who could lead the country if needed, and her experience in California state government and the U.S. Senate, as well as her national profile, make her a natural choice.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Equities Commentary
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Stocks may churn throughout the summer.