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Macroeconomic & Geopolitical
Jackson Hole Comments Contribute to Stock Decline, U.S. Jobs Market Expected to Remain Strong
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Investors give about a 65% chance of a 0.75% Fed rate hike in September. The U.S. jobs report on Friday is expected to show 3.5% unemployment and 300,000 jobs added.
Policy and Regulatory Commentary
With Less Than 10 Weeks Until Election Day, Are Democrats Really Surging?
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Are Democrats really headed into this fall’s election in a stronger place than they were three months ago? And how do today’s polls compare to surveys at the same time four years ago when a first term Republican president faced his first midterm election cycle? Let’s take a look.
Policy and Regulatory Commentary
Redistricting Fights Won't End this November
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Following yesterday’s primaries in New York and Florida, only a handful of U.S. states still have not yet held their primary elections, which means that voters in most states now have a very good idea who will be on their general election ballots this November.
Macroeconomic & Geopolitical
An End to the Build Back Better Saga?
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After more than a year of intraparty negotiations, Democrats are on the cusp of enacting the Inflation Reduction Act.
Policy and Regulatory Commentary
Looking at the Midterm Polls as D.C. Rolls into August
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With less than 100 days remaining until Election Day, most will spend this month intensely focused on courting voters at county fairs, hometown Labor Day parades, and other events.
Macroeconomic & Geopolitical
A Step Ahead: Everyone's Quitting Their Jobs. Good!
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Olga and Hugo explain why the Great Resignation is the wrong story to describe what’s happening in the U.S. labor market. Job turnover is a welcome sign for the economy, and wage increases for low-income workers can boost economic growth.
Macroeconomic & Geopolitical
Anatomy of a Recession Long View: Are we there yet?
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The current bear market is in its early stages with multiple compression driving losses so far. Where equities ultimately bottom will depend on how well the economy holds up and the trajectory of corporate earnings.