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Market Outlooks
AAM Viewpoints: 2020 Earnings Outlook
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Tis the season for outlooks and one of the more dependable indicators for the equity market over time has been the direction of corporate earnings. Not surprisingly, as the earnings power of U.S. corporations has grown, equity prices have moved higher.
Market Outlooks
AAM Viewpoints: Global Monetary Policy: Easing Like Sunday Morning
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In anticipation of the Federal Reserve lowering rates next week at their meeting and the announcement this week that the European Central Bank (ECB) reduced rates to -0.50% and increased their purchasing of bonds a month, we believe it to be worthwhile to look at where we may be headed in policy and market action. Now we may be accused of being a bit presumptive about a future event such as an interest rate cut next week, however, we feel a bit confident in that the market is currently pricing in a 99.9% chance of a rate cut according to the Fed Fund Futures.
Market Outlooks
AAM Viewpoints: Is ESG A Magic Green Button?
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Have you read any research on ESG investing recently? If you have, then you’ll know that academic studies continue to stress the positive alpha-generating potential of ESG factors.
Market Outlooks
AAM Viewpoints: Contrarian Market Signals: What is certain about uncertainty?
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Contrary to narratives bombarding the markets right now, certain indicators are historically very bullish for equity assets. Though the anxiety about the flock of “black swans” being right around the corner helps to mitigate over exuberance, it astonishes me how many times we forget the previous prognostications and make new cases for the failed projection. Recently, I have been reflecting on Mark Twain’s quote: “I've had a lot of worries in my life, most of which never happened.”
Market Outlooks
AAM Viewpoints: Look Beyond the Volatility to Find Return
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Periods of volatility in fixed income and equity markets are nothing new but with each one comes a parade of teeth gnashing and hand wringing by experts extolling the virtues of selected investments while simultaneously predicting events often referred to as being much more dire than those we are experiencing at the moment. It seems, more often than not, that such bold predictions make for good headlines but rarely for investment results.
Market Outlooks
AAM Viewpoints: Reasonable Municipal Downgrades?
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For the past several months, the rating agencies have been imposing new standards in the ratings of municipal revenue bonds by imposing ceilings on these ratings linked to the issuer’s general obligation (GO) pledge. This has resulted in downgrades of some well-known, and not-so-well-known, issuers despite no change in the fundamental credit profile of the revenue bond, or the related general obligation bond, issuer. In fact, some of these downgrades occurred in the face of an improving credit profile.
Market Outlooks
AAM Viewpoints: Economic Problems in Europe and China Are Real – So Are The Opportunities
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Two of our high conviction best ideas for 2019 include Emerging Markets and Europe. After a dismal year for global equity markets in 2018, both markets have gotten off to a great start in 2019 roughly keeping pace with the United States. According to Bloomberg, year to date through March 15, Emerging Markets (as measured by the MSCI Emerging Markets Index) is up an impressive 9.73% while the S&P 500 outpaces being up 12.8%. Europe (as measured by the Eurostoxx 50) is up a respectable 12.87%. What should we expect for the balance of the year?
Market Outlooks
AAM Viewpoints: And the Beat Goes On... Liquidity and Leverage
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Continuing the discussion from last week about the discussion of Leverage and Liquidity, we focus a bit on why there are some economic and market metrics that don’t corroborate the “feelings” that permeate discussions.
Market Outlooks
AAM Viewpoints: Liquidity and Leverage, Forever Dance Partners
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With the tariff two step currently being displayed between the United States and China, it is easy to overlook two components of a late-stage economic cycle that often foreshadows the severity of the next downturn. While the downturn does not appear imminent, it is still an event that one should be prepared for as the capital market prices will price it in before the actual occurrence.
Market Outlooks
AAM Viewpoints: Regardless of Outcome, The U.S.-China Trade Dispute May Accelerate the U.S. Manufacturing Renaissance
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Most reports suggest that trade talks between the U.S. and China are progressing at a measured pace and that an agreement is near completion. The expectation that a deal will be reached looks to be priced into the stock market, so a positive outcome would likely be met with sighs of relief instead of champagne corks popping.
Market Outlooks
AAM Viewpoints – Corporate Bond Trends
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In the 4th quarter (Q4) investors began preparing for the credit cycle to come to an end and concerns mounted related to potential corporate downgrades. Corporate spreads widened during Q4 and presented opportunities for investors in lower investment grade and high yield credits as Q1 2019 was a strong quarter for risk assets. The ICE BofAML US Corporate BBB Index spread tightened by 52 basis points (bps) and BB credits are 140 bps tighter than they finished 2018 (see the Option Adjusted Spread (OAS) changes in the table below). High yield bonds have rallied more so far this year making BBBs look cheap on a relative basis. The lowest investment grade bonds, rated in the BBB range, lagged high grade credits in Q4, but were up 5.57% in Q1 and have annualized 7.91% over the past 10 years.