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Market Outlooks
AAM Viewpoints: Why Sustainability is having a “Good Crisis”
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Sustainability and ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) are the new buzz words in investing but – despite their popularity – they are often poorly understood.
Market Outlooks
AAM Viewpoints: Municipal Market’s Swift Recovery Overshadows Tailwinds
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One thing is for certain, there has been no lack of conversation surrounding the shape of the recovery across both equity and fixed income markets.
Market Outlooks
AAM Viewpoints: Recession Now Official; New Bull Market Emerges
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In my Viewpoints commentary from mid-March, we were in the throes of a record selloff with a drop in asset prices across all asset classes. The COVID-19 pandemic was firmly entrenched in the northeast United States and spreading quickly.
Market Outlooks
AAM Viewpoints: Promising sub-industries in a Post-Covid-19 World
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It’s no secret the world has gone crazy and there will be many rippling effects across the economy, many of which we can already measure as analysts pump out article after article about record-breaking indicators – often causing more fear than anything else.
Market Outlooks
Opportunities & Risks in Commercial Real Estate Today
Wednesday, June 3, 2020 | 4 PM ET
Market Outlooks
AAM Viewpoints: Municipal Markets: No Height Requirement, but a Strong Stomach is Advised
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The municipal bond market can be aptly described as a rollercoaster ride over the past several months. This applies to both the movement of yields and the emotional/mental toll it took upon participants.
Market Outlooks
AAM Viewpoints: Markets Bracing for Bone Chilling Economic Data & Government Actions
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This week the markets are bracing for what may be the worst economic news in the country’s history. The grizzly data will show what the shutdown of the U.S. and global economies looks like.
Market Outlooks
AAM Viewpoints: The Great Battle Ahead: Negative Interest Rates and Historic Debt Issuance
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Prepare for the Unstoppable Force and the Immovable Object to battle it out over the next few years. While the equity markets continue to befuddle fundamentalists as to their strength considering the historically poor economic and earning metrics, the credit markets are providing some interesting components to the potential recovery’s shape.
Market Outlooks
What’s next for China?
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As the first country to tackle COVID-19, China has institutional investors globally wondering about the local situation – and what it means for their portfolios. June Lui, Portfolio Manager, BMO LGM Investments, gives an on-the-ground assessment of China’s economic backdrop and the impact on stocks.
Market Outlooks
The enemy of a major economic slump is debt
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This is a hard commentary to write. The situation is obviously very grave but also extremely fluid and no one has any special or privileged insight as to when a degree of normality may return. All pandemics end but it would be foolish on our part to suggest that it will be over within a few months. What is clear is that the world is tumbling into a serious global recession with significant unemployment. When both supply and demand collapse the end result is obvious and unavoidable. Governments and central banks have thrown several kitchen sinks at the crisis but with a world in lock-down it does little to lift economic activity. Expenses go up but incomes go down.
Market Outlooks
Virus starts with v but ends with u-shaped
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2020 began largely as we expected from an economic perspective, but as the first quarter ended it was difficult even to remember what “normal” economic times looked like, that is, before COVID-19 mushroomed and became a global health crisis.
Before the situation deteriorated in late February, many economists expected the economic effects of the virus to be primarily felt in the first and second quarters with a “v-shaped” recovery to follow. Now many expect a “u-shaped” recovery occurring perhaps by year-end. Economic indicators can lag the headlines, but U.S. unemployment had already begun to spike as the first quarter ended with more to come, likely climbing to double digits as large segments of the economy remain shut down in an effort to contain the virus. We have seen second-quarter annualized GDP estimates ranging from -5% to -30%, but the unprecedented combination of a pandemic and the modern global economy makes this very difficult to call. The numbers will be painful, regardless of the precise magnitude. In terms of the human cost, the pain is already acute.
Market Outlooks
Corporate credit spreads widened aggressively in March 2020
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Credit markets have seen extreme repricing over the past month as a result of the market stress caused by coronavirus and its impact to the economy. The period through March 26 saw some of the most aggressive corporate spread widening in history, with the worst days experiencing almost twice as much widening as any day in 2008. Global investment grade corporate credit spreads reached 340 basis points after having started the year at 102, and we saw global high yield spreads widen past 1,000 basis points as an index, which is generally the level considered the threshold for individual bonds to be considered part of distressed indices.