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Fixed Income Insights
Interest rates: Lower for longer...or forever?
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On September 16, 2020, the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) left interest rates near zero and signaled that it expects to hold them there through at least 2023, adding outcome based guidance. The statement follows the new long-term policy framework announced by Chair Jay Powell in August at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s annual Jackson Hole conference. The Fed notes that rates will remain near zero “until labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with the Committee’s assessments of maximum employment and inflation has risen to 2 percent and is on track to moderately exceed 2 percent for some time.” We didn’t get a precise definition of what a moderate overshoot would look like, allowing the Fed to retain some flexibility.
Fixed Income Insights
Fixed Income Market Update
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In our view, monetary and fiscal policy have done a tremendous job in papering over fundamental uncertainty. Read more for the news & nuggets
Fixed Income Insights
Municipal Fixed Income: Bluebirds fly
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We focus on the strong recovery in the muni market over the second quarter, which proved to be illuminating to municipal investors on a couple fronts.
Fixed Income Insights
May 2020 Fixed Income Market Update
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In our view, the markets feel much healthier at the end of April than a month ago, but underappreciated in the improved sentiment is not only the scale of March policy action, but its continuation into April. Actions announced in April would ordinarily have remained in headlines and discussion for weeks, but the nearly half trillion dollar U.S. fiscal stimulus package has been treated almost as a footnote to its much larger cousin in March. Similarly, Fed and other central banks not only continued to implement the massive programs initiated last month, but significantly expanded on them.
Fixed Income Insights
Municipal Yields Have Converged
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Over the past several weeks, yields between short- and intermediate-term Municipal Bonds have converged. This may be an opportunity for investors to significantly reduce interest rate risk while sacrificing minimal income since shorter-term bonds typically have less sensitivity to rates.
Fixed Income Insights
Neither bulls nor bears last forever
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While bull markets don’t last forever, neither do bear markets. Since 1928, the strength and duration of S&P 500® bull markets has meaningfully outweighed that of bear markets.
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Fixed Income Insights
Did the Fed just go Minority Report?
We believe the Fed is taking a risk — one we hope works — in shifting from reactive to preemptive monetary policy. It was not that long ago that the Fed was more forthright about the uncertainty inherent in economic forecasting as Chairman Powell used the analogy of walking into a dark room and slowing down to avoid furniture as an analogy for the Fed’s situation. Today, they seem more certain that they know the future and aim to alter it.
Sustainable Investing
Societal Impact vs. Financial Return: A Case of “Either/Or” No More
Many investors who find impact investing potentially appealing have at the same time struggled with a notion that investing for the “greater good” will always be “concessionary,” that is, accompanied by some loss of financial performance.