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Fixed Income Insights
A Mostly Benign Outlook for U.S. Inflation
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The stabilization of U.S. economic growth amid unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus has raised questions about the likelihood of inflation returning. Global Head of Fixed Income Jim Cielinski explains why he does not see significant risk of sustained higher inflation materializing in the next few years – but cautions that short-term spikes are possible and that investors should evaluate the diversification that their fixed income portfolios provide.
Retirement
Marching to a Million: How to Keep Financial Goals on Track When Starting a New Job
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As employment in the U.S. begins to recover following the devastating job losses incurred during the first few months of the pandemic, some younger adults are now seeing their job searches bear fruit. In the second of a two-part series, Retirement Director Ben Rizzuto outlines three steps to help those who have recently started new careers stay on track to their long-term financial goals.
Retirement
Marching to a Million: How to Navigate the Post-COVID Job Market
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While the U.S. job market is slowly recovering from the soaring unemployment rates seen in April and May, it remains an exceptionally challenging environment – particularly for young adults who were preparing to enter the workforce just as COVID hit. In the first of a two-part blog post, Retirement Director Ben Rizzuto offers actionable strategies for young adults who may find their career prospects dimmed in today’s job market.
Fixed Income Insights
November 2020 Fixed Income Market Update
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In our view, while elections have consequences, the consequences are rarely as stark or as predictable as prognosticators suggest.
Fixed Income Insights
October Fixed Income Market Update
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In our view, while economic data has been generally improving, higher frequency data such as elevated jobless claims and small business employment highlight the risk that the recovery could stall absent additional fiscal stimulus. Given tensions and political posturing entering the last stages of election season, short-term we believe risk premiums should be higher on the margin until resolution of the election.
Fixed Income Insights
Fed Moves to Average Inflation Targeting
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Fed policymakers will not tighten monetary policy until inflation remains above 2% and job gains are robust.
Fixed Income Insights
Interest rates: Lower for longer...or forever?
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On September 16, 2020, the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) left interest rates near zero and signaled that it expects to hold them there through at least 2023, adding outcome based guidance. The statement follows the new long-term policy framework announced by Chair Jay Powell in August at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s annual Jackson Hole conference. The Fed notes that rates will remain near zero “until labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with the Committee’s assessments of maximum employment and inflation has risen to 2 percent and is on track to moderately exceed 2 percent for some time.” We didn’t get a precise definition of what a moderate overshoot would look like, allowing the Fed to retain some flexibility.
Fixed Income Insights
Attractive Yields, Slowing Bank Loan Downgrades Support CLOs
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Lower CLO issuance and slowing loan downgrades, along with some attractive yields, have produced value in certain CLOs.