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Macroeconomic & Geopolitical
Biden goes the predictable route
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After a lengthy vetting process, Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden selected Senator Kamala Harris as his running mate for the 2020 presidential election. Though many names were floated in the past month, Harris has long been considered a favorite for the VP pick. Harris, a 2020 candidate for president herself, fits the bill as an experienced politician with liberal credentials and a knack for fundraising. In the past Biden spoke about the need to pick a VP who could lead the country if needed, and her experience in California state government and the U.S. Senate, as well as her national profile, make her a natural choice.
Fixed Income Insights
May 2020 Fixed Income Market Update
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In our view, the markets feel much healthier at the end of April than a month ago, but underappreciated in the improved sentiment is not only the scale of March policy action, but its continuation into April. Actions announced in April would ordinarily have remained in headlines and discussion for weeks, but the nearly half trillion dollar U.S. fiscal stimulus package has been treated almost as a footnote to its much larger cousin in March. Similarly, Fed and other central banks not only continued to implement the massive programs initiated last month, but significantly expanded on them.
Fixed Income Insights
Municipal Yields Have Converged
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Over the past several weeks, yields between short- and intermediate-term Municipal Bonds have converged. This may be an opportunity for investors to significantly reduce interest rate risk while sacrificing minimal income since shorter-term bonds typically have less sensitivity to rates.
Fixed Income Insights
Neither bulls nor bears last forever
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While bull markets don’t last forever, neither do bear markets. Since 1928, the strength and duration of S&P 500® bull markets has meaningfully outweighed that of bear markets.
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Fixed Income Insights
Did the Fed just go Minority Report?
We believe the Fed is taking a risk — one we hope works — in shifting from reactive to preemptive monetary policy. It was not that long ago that the Fed was more forthright about the uncertainty inherent in economic forecasting as Chairman Powell used the analogy of walking into a dark room and slowing down to avoid furniture as an analogy for the Fed’s situation. Today, they seem more certain that they know the future and aim to alter it.