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Market Outlooks
Weekly Market Compass: A federal unemployment benefit ends, Congress continues to debate about stimulus, and many fear schools could hasten a ‘second wave’ of virus cases
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Last Friday, my oldest child graduated from high school. Late July is not normally associated with graduations, but we are living in a time of COVID, and so what was supposed to occur two months earlier in the New York area was postponed and rescheduled.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Market Compass: US stocks pressured by rising virus cases and tensions with China
When I was in high school, we read Henry James’ “The Europeans” in our English Literature class.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Market Compass: Another injection of fiscal stimulus may be on the horizon
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I caught a bit of the James Bond movie “Casino Royale” on TV over the weekend.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Market Compass: China’s ability to contain COVID-19 boosts longer-term confidence
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Last week, we saw increases in both the Chinese and US stock markets.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Market Compass: How long can economic data improve while infections continue to spread?
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Last week, the US issued its employment situation report for June. For the second month in a row it was an impressive report, handily beating expectations in terms of both non-farm payroll growth and the unemployment rate.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Market Compass: A region-by-region look at our expectations for the remainder of 2020
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The first half of 2020 has been unexpected, to say the very least. Our outlook for the year quickly became obsolete with the rapid spread of COVID-19 and accompanying lockdowns across the globe, which have stymied economic activity and caused an unprecedented destruction of demand.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Market Compass: Evaluating the positive and negative signs over the past week
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Two weeks ago, I wrote about some burgeoning “green shoots” that offered early, encouraging signs of economic recovery around the world.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Market Compass: Powell pledges to support the economy, but notes more Congressional help may be needed
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Last week saw a massive sell-off for stocks globally. The initial trigger seems to have come from US Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell’s press conference following the June 9-10 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).
Market Outlooks
Weekly Market Compass: Encouraging signs were seen in job creation, manufacturing and service activity, and auto sales
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The last time I used the term “green shoots” was the late spring and summer of 2009.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Market Compass: The WPA put millions back to work during the Great Depression. Could this be a model for 2020 and beyond?
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Unemployment rates for many countries are sky high and likely to remain high for some time.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Market Compass: US-China tensions could be the biggest risk to US stocks this year
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In the last several weeks, stocks have exhibited weakness and higher volatility. I am convinced that rising US-China tensions are behind this, and that the potential for a reignition of the US-China tariff war could be the single biggest risk to the US stock market this year.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Market Compass: Some countries and states are easing lockdowns, while politicians debate what to do next
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One month ago in this blog, I noted that April would be a critical month to gauge the global response to the COVID-19 pandemic.