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Market Outlooks
Global Weekly Commentary: Seizing new regime opportunities
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We see the new regime of greater volatility playing out: higher interest rates, stagnating activity and structural forces set to push inflation back up. Flip-flops in the market narrative make that clear.
Market Outlooks
Student of the Market: September 2023
Stay on top of the changing market environments by learning from their historical parallels.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Investment Commentary: A durable case for duration
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One way to do this is by adding to investment grade corporate bonds, which have relatively longer durations than the broader fixed income market. They are also currently yielding close to 6%, and defaults are expected to remain low.
Market Outlooks
Global Weekly Commentary: New regime fuels narrative flip flops
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We‘re in an unprecedented macro environment that is driving constant shifts in the market narrative: from hopes of avoiding recession to fears good macro news could be bad for markets in just a few months. We see the market moving with data as if we’re in a normal business cycle.
Market Outlooks
Global Weekly Commentary: Favoring short-term bonds long term
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Sovereign bond yields have surged this year, with U.S. long-term yields hitting 16-year highs last month. We prefer short-term government bonds over credit. We go underweight high quality credit on a strategic view of five years and longer and trim our overall underweight to sovereign bonds.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Investment Commentary: Post-Jackson, it’s time to start filling duration holes
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With the anticipated end of the U.S. rate hiking cycle as a backdrop, we analyzed the returns of the broad bond market versus short-term Treasuries during historical periods when the Fed paused (Figure 2).
Market Outlooks
Weekly Investment Commentary: Where to invest if consumer strength fades
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A potential softening in consumer strength over the next few quarters could determine whether or not the U.S. economy falls into recession.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Investment Commentary: Markets hang on as summer rumbles along
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Demand despite downgrade should remain strong. We don’t think the U.S. will struggle to find buyers for Treasury securities, which could cause yields to rise. U.S.