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Market Outlooks
AAM Viewpoints: Buying Low and Selling High is Preferred
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The historically low yields of 2020 forced many income-seeking investors to take on additional risk. First, they may have increased their duration exposure to capture the higher yields offered by longer-dated maturities. Or secondly, they may have migrated to “riskier” assets such as high yield corporate bonds as fiscal and monetary policy aimed to stimulate economic growth.
Market Outlooks
AAM Viewpoints: The Low Yield Environment and Corporate Credit Trends
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Outside of the oil crises, U.S. real yields have never been lower and global negative yield debt reached a record $18.38 trillion on 12/11/20, and as of Tuesday, 2/16/21 stands at $14.74 trillion. The U.S. 10-year Treasury real yield hit an all-time low on 8/6/20 at -1.08% and again on 1/4/21. It now stands at -1.04%. The previous low was in December 2012 at -0.92%.
Market Outlooks
AAM Viewpoints: Municipals Do Their Best Tortoise Impression and Play Catch Up
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Slow and steady wins the race, or so says Aesop. After playing the post-COVID investment grade laggard for the majority of 2020, the municipal market’s consistent slow-paced nature has them playing catch up through the first 25 trading days of 2021. While municipals enjoyed a healthy 5.21% year-to-date return for 2020, that was still behind U.S. Treasuries by 279 bps (basis points) as well as U.S. Investment Grade Corporates by a staggering 468 bps.
Market Outlooks
AAM Viewpoints: The Pandemic: A Credit Epilogue
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Introduction: While the COVID-19 crisis is not yet over, with cases recently spiking again, the vaccines are being administered and there appears to be a light at the end of the tunnel. It still remains to be seen whether new consumer behavior will stick or revert to pre-pandemic patterns.
Market Outlooks
The Government Responds with Extraordinary Measures
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The Federal Reserve and Washington lawmakers have taken dramatic steps to counteract the effects of the COVID-19 virus on the economy.
Market Outlooks
View of the Business Cycle by Fidelity's Asset Allocation Research Team
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A review of the current state of the U.S. business cycle and the effects of the spread of COVID-19, as well as the potential implications for asset allocation.
Market Outlooks
The Market Has a Math Problem
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The market has a math problem—or does it? It all depends on where rates go.
Market Outlooks
Does China Hold the Keys to a Global Economic Bounce?
A late '90s-style reacceleration may not be in the cards.
Market Outlooks
AAM Viewpoints: The Japanification of the Global Economy
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The state of global interest rates is sinking quickly. Negative interest rates have now engulfed over $15 trillion of global sovereign debt with nearly 30% of all developed country sovereign debt having a negative yield.
Market Outlooks
What's the Price of Uncertainty?
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Uncertainty & demographics put a premium on cash flow.
Market Outlooks
An Improving Narrative?
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Jurrien Timmer April 2019 Commentary: I think the storyline is about to get better for markets
Market Outlooks
AAM Viewpoints: Economic Problems in Europe and China Are Real – So Are The Opportunities
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Two of our high conviction best ideas for 2019 include Emerging Markets and Europe. After a dismal year for global equity markets in 2018, both markets have gotten off to a great start in 2019 roughly keeping pace with the United States. According to Bloomberg, year to date through March 15, Emerging Markets (as measured by the MSCI Emerging Markets Index) is up an impressive 9.73% while the S&P 500 outpaces being up 12.8%. Europe (as measured by the Eurostoxx 50) is up a respectable 12.87%. What should we expect for the balance of the year?