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Market Outlooks
AAM Viewpoints: Rising rates: good or bad for dividends?
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With interest rates on the move – and consensus believing the trend will continue into 2023 – many investors, especially those searching for income, are grappling with the potential fall-out of rising rates on their portfolios.
Market Outlooks
AAM Viewpoints: Stimulus, household savings, inflation
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The 30,000-foot headline message can read that the stimulus payments to individuals will provide additional monies for essential needs and/or to spend on goods and services that would fuel the recovery of the economy impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic. With significantly more cash in the hands of the consumer/household than before the pandemic, along with the trillions of dollars in government spending, it can be argued that the economy is set up for an inflationary period.
Market Outlooks
AAM Viewpoints: Municipal markets get a shot in the arm as political tailwinds build
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Q1 2021 started out much the same way as Q1 2020 for US municipal markets, beginning with strong performance early in the year, only to be followed by volatility and a move to the downside.
Market Outlooks
AAM Viewpoints: Equity Performance During and After a Period of Rising Interest Rates
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The yield of the 10-year Treasury has risen 80% from the beginning of the year until the time of this writing (3/26/21). This got us wondering where we think we might park our money during a time of rising interest rates, and where to rotate to once they’ve peaked.
Market Outlooks
AAM Viewpoints: The Dividend Landscape is Evolving. What you Need to Know.
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As many as 59 companies in the S&P 500 cut or eliminated their dividend in 2020 – yet the index still managed to grow dividends payments 0.44% from a year earlier and set a record payout to investors.
Market Outlooks
AAM Viewpoints: Mind The Gap
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The first quarter of 2021 witnessed the continued migration from Growth to Value stocks. The performance gap between Growth and Value (as measured by the corresponding Russell indices) has narrowed significantly. This is something that – albeit expected – is a normal rotation that happens in every economic growth cycle.
Market Outlooks
AAM Viewpoints: Market’s Expanding Leadership Buttressing the Uptrend
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One of the most consistent and enduring qualities in this bull market cycle has been its broad and diverse sector participation.
Market Outlooks
AAM Viewpoints: A Look Back at the One-Year Anniversary of the Municipal Bond Market Selloff of 2020
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As we approach the March Anniversary of the massive short-term sell-off of the Municipal Market, we can’t help but think of how resilient the bond market is and how important the Federal Reserve is for stabilizing our markets.
Market Outlooks
AAM Viewpoints: Buying Low and Selling High is Preferred
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The historically low yields of 2020 forced many income-seeking investors to take on additional risk. First, they may have increased their duration exposure to capture the higher yields offered by longer-dated maturities. Or secondly, they may have migrated to “riskier” assets such as high yield corporate bonds as fiscal and monetary policy aimed to stimulate economic growth.
Market Outlooks
AAM Viewpoints: The Low Yield Environment and Corporate Credit Trends
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Outside of the oil crises, U.S. real yields have never been lower and global negative yield debt reached a record $18.38 trillion on 12/11/20, and as of Tuesday, 2/16/21 stands at $14.74 trillion. The U.S. 10-year Treasury real yield hit an all-time low on 8/6/20 at -1.08% and again on 1/4/21. It now stands at -1.04%. The previous low was in December 2012 at -0.92%.
Market Outlooks
AAM Viewpoints: Municipals Do Their Best Tortoise Impression and Play Catch Up
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Slow and steady wins the race, or so says Aesop. After playing the post-COVID investment grade laggard for the majority of 2020, the municipal market’s consistent slow-paced nature has them playing catch up through the first 25 trading days of 2021. While municipals enjoyed a healthy 5.21% year-to-date return for 2020, that was still behind U.S. Treasuries by 279 bps (basis points) as well as U.S. Investment Grade Corporates by a staggering 468 bps.
Market Outlooks
AAM Viewpoints: The Pandemic: A Credit Epilogue
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Introduction: While the COVID-19 crisis is not yet over, with cases recently spiking again, the vaccines are being administered and there appears to be a light at the end of the tunnel. It still remains to be seen whether new consumer behavior will stick or revert to pre-pandemic patterns.