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Market Outlooks
Global Weekly Commentary: Upgrading our broad U.S. stocks view
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Excitement over artificial intelligence (AI) spurred a rally in U.S. tech stocks that buoyed the market in 2023. We’ve said the rally can run for now – and broaden out.
Market Outlooks
Global Weekly Commentary: Geopolitical fragmentation plays out
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Geopolitical fragmentation, one of five mega forces or structural shifts we track, is playing out in recent events in Asia and the Middle East. Yemen’s Houthi militants attacking Red Sea shipping highlights how hot spots can hit supply chains and up production costs.
Market Outlooks
Global Weekly Commentary: Why stocks can stay upbeat, for now
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Equity markets – and even the Federal Reserve – have largely embraced the soft landing narrative that inflation will fall to the Fed’s 2% target without a recession.
Market Outlooks
Global Weekly Commentary: Navigating macro currents in 2024
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Risk assets ended 2023 on an upbeat note as the Fed appeared to make a big bet on inflation coming down and growth only gradually slowing. Markets interpreted the Fed's messaging as a green light for aggressive policy easing.
Market Outlooks
Global Weekly Commentary: Three 2023 lessons we carry into 2024
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We take three lessons from 2023 to shape our investment approach in the new year. First, markets flipflopping between macro narratives does not reveal new information about where we will end up.
Market Outlooks
MarketScapes: Transitioning Carefully
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The Fed’s latest policy statement seems to suggest they are carefully transitioning from the question of when to stop raising rates to when to start cutting them, with an eye on inflation and growth.
Market Outlooks
MarketScapes: The Case for Separating China from Emerging Market Index Investments
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We think China’s underperformance and market trends over the past decade has caused index investors to more closely scrutinize including China in their portfolios. It may make sense to separate China from other emerging markets, given China’s distinct differences.
Market Outlooks
MarketScapes: Even in this U.S. Equity Rally, Investors Can Find Losses to Reduce Taxes
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Historically, tax expenses over time have impacted after-tax wealth more than fees or trading costs. Investors who employ tax management strategies may receive benefits of investment returns coupled with after-tax outperformance. We think volatility can create opportunities in underlying securities in any given year.
Market Outlooks
MarketScapes; Conditions Appear Favorable for Distressed Credit Investing
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As some companies face refinancing at higher rates, defaulting on their debt becomes an increasing possibility. We uncover how this could lead to attractive returns for the private distressed market.
Market Outlooks
Global Weekly Commentary: Putting money to work in 2024
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We think the new regime of greater macro and market volatility makes this the time to grab the wheel and take an active portfolio approach. Our 2024 Global Outlook outlines how we do that.
Market Outlooks
Global Weekly Commentary: Three investment themes at COP28
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The low-carbon transition is one of five mega forces, or structural shifts, we track for investment risks and opportunities.
Market Outlooks
Global Weekly Commentary: Getting granular in our strategic views
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We think granularity is key as government bond yields hit multi-year highs.