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Market Outlooks
Global Weekly Commentary: Guide to our 2020 outlook
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We see a big shift in the macro environment in the year ahead – as the dovish monetary policy pivot of 2019 fades as a market driver. We detail these views in our 2020 Global outlook.
Market Outlooks
Global Weekly Commentary: Taking stock of our 2019 views
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In 2019 the key drivers of global markets have been trade tensions and central bank easing, in our view. We were early to see that a protectionist push would hurt the industrial cycle and business investment — a key reason for our global growth downgrade. And we were correct to say that government bonds would play a crucial role as ballast during equity sell-offs even at low yields. But we did not see such a strong and persistent flight to safety and the unusual synchronized easing pivot from central banks at this advanced stage in the expansion.
Market Outlooks
Global Weekly Commentary: Lower growth, higher inflation
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Markets breathed a sigh of relief last week on signs of easing U.S.-China trade tensions. We see ongoing policy support, the absence of obvious financial system vulnerabilities and resilient consumer spending helping extend the U.S. economic expansion.
Market Outlooks
Global Weekly Commentary: UK political upheaval: market implications
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We identified geopolitical risk as the key market driver in the second half of 2019 in our midyear investment outlook. The UK is the latest example, where deep divisions over a potential Brexit have unsettled the political landscape, paving the way for a broader set of potential outcomes.
Market Outlooks
Global Weekly Commentary: Back to school: our themes put to the test
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U.S.-China trade tensions have escalated, echoing our midyear outlook protectionist push theme, and bond yields have fallen to new lows. We do not see a near-term recession, with no clear signs of financial vulnerabilities and central banks helping extend the cycle.
Market Outlooks
Global Weekly Commentary: Look beyond market selloffs
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The “risk-off” mood in global markets deepened last week – as global government bond yields plunged to historical lows and the inversion of part of the U.S. Treasury curve sparked recession fears. Perceived safe-haven assets such as gold rallied. We still see limited near-term recession risks as central banks’ dovish pivot helps stretch the economic cycle, yet caution that trade and geopolitical tensions pose downside risks.