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Market Outlooks
Global Weekly Commentary: Don’t be tempted by the old playbook
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Major central banks will hike rates again this week: Getting inflation down means they need to crush demand, making recession foretold.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Investment Commentary: Oasis or mirage? Equities ponder the economic horizon
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Our base case calls for a continued deceleration of inflation through the first half of next year, although it should remain elevated and well above the Fed’s 2% target.
Market Outlooks
Global Weekly Commentary: A new playbook for a new regime
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We see the new regime playing out and not going away. Persistent production constraints keep this regime of higher macro and market volatility in place, in our view.
Market Outlooks
Global Weekly Commentary: Aging raises cost of curbing inflation
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The share of the U.S. population in work or seeking a job is still below pre-Covid levels.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Investment Commentary: When will bonds act like bonds again?
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Investment grade fixed income (both U.S. aggregate bonds and municipals) have historically shown they usually deliver positive total returns in periods of negative equity market returns.
Market Outlooks
Global Weekly Commentary: Strategic views in the new regime
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Our strategic views of five years and longer are positioned for the new regime of greater macro and market volatility. We go more overweight investment grade (IG) credit on attractive yields and healthy corporate balance sheets that can withstand the mild recession we expect.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Investment Commentary: Good inflation news comes with caveats
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One data point does not make a trend, and the U.S. Federal Reserve is unlikely to reverse course based on October’s CPI print.