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Market Outlooks
Weekly Investment Commentary: Recession fears and trade uncertainty weigh on stocks
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Equities around the world finished lower last week. The S&P 500 finished down 1.4%, marking its fourth straight week of declines.1 U.S. equity indexes ended lower for the week, with the week’s early gains reversing on Friday on a variety of headlines surrounding U.S. and China trade policy.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Wire: One thing we are NOT worried about today
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There are many issues that have investors concerned as we are set to say goodbye to summer, including a flat to partially inverted yield curve, deteriorating US/ China relations, and a slowdown in manufacturing activity in the US and around the world. As we previously wrote, we don’t believe the yield curve is indicating a recession is imminent and we do believe the US and China will eventually solve for trade, an outcome which should prove to be a positive catalyst for manufacturing globally.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Wire: It feels like Groundhog Day… Bill Murray, trade, tariffs, and the markets
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In the film Groundhog Day, Bill Murray plays TV weatherman Phil Connors who, against his wishes, is sent to report on the annual Groundhog Day event in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania and, while there, relives Groundhog Day again, and again and again with an eye toward his having the perspective and the time to become a better person, which he eventually does.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Investment Commentary: Trade issues continue to pressure stocks
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After a brief relief bounce on hopes that the U.S. might be trying to ease tensions with China, the equity market downturn resumed last week as investors left stocks for the perceived safety of government bonds. Recession-related concerns grew as the Treasury yield curve inverted, more global government bond markets traded in negative territory and poor economic data came out of Germany and China.
Market Outlooks
Global Weekly Commentary: Look beyond market selloffs
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The “risk-off” mood in global markets deepened last week – as global government bond yields plunged to historical lows and the inversion of part of the U.S. Treasury curve sparked recession fears. Perceived safe-haven assets such as gold rallied. We still see limited near-term recession risks as central banks’ dovish pivot helps stretch the economic cycle, yet caution that trade and geopolitical tensions pose downside risks.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Fixed Income Commentary: Treasury yields fall further on global growth concerns
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U.S. Treasury yields closed sharply lower again last week, led by long maturities. By mid-week, the 2-year/10-year Treasury yield relationship inverted for the first time since 2007 and the 30-year yield closed below 2% for the first time ever.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Fixed Income Commentary: Trade concerns continue pressuring Treasury yields lower
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U.S. Treasury yields declined again last week, with the yield difference between the 3-month T-bill and the 10-year Treasury note inverted further. Market expectations for a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut at the September meeting are high.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Investment Commentary: Stocks have made no forward progress for 18 months
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Trade headlines dominated investor attention last week, as high levels of market volatility persisted. The S&P 500 Index fell 3% on Monday before clawing back most of those losses to end the week down 0.4%. The defensive REITs and utilities sectors fared best, while energy and financials performed worst.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Wire: Bizarro bonds – guaranteed to lose you money, and not just in a comic strip
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Fans of Superman – or Seinfeld – may be familiar with Bizarro World, a cubed planet far out in space that is inhabited by imperfect duplicates of Superman, Lois Lane, and their friends. In a nutshell, on Bizarro – relative to earth – up is down, hot is cold, good is bad, and beautiful is ugly.