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Market Outlooks
Global Weekly Commentary: Gauging geopolitical risks
This piece is approved to use with clients.
The market focus is on the restart and inflation - and less on geopolitical risks – yet it’s worth watching specific risks as flareups could catch investors off guard.
Market Outlooks
Global Weekly Commentary: Don’t be surprised by surprising data
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We see the recent inflation spike as temporary due to unique restart forces, but see inflation on the rise in the medium term. Both views keep us pro-risk.
Macroeconomic & Geopolitical
Redistricting and Retirements Will Send Shockwaves Through Washington
A few weeks ago, we discussed how several upcoming special elections will soon impact the margin of power Democrats currently hold in the U.S. House of Representatives.
Market Outlooks
Global Weekly Commentary: Mind the (rate expectation) gap
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Markets are pricing in a liftoff from near-zero policy rates as early as next year, even though the Fed through its new framework has committed to stay behind the curve on inflation.
Policy and Regulatory Commentary
The Third Rail of Politics: Tax Increases
This past February marked the 108th anniversary of our modern income tax system. (We’ll forgive you if, like us, you missed the milestone.)
Market Outlooks
Global Weekly Commentary: Inflation: beyond near-term volatility
This piece is approved to use with clients.
Inflation looks set to overshoot the Fed’s target as we have expected. Yet we see uncertainties around the near-term persistence of the overshoot as the restart leads to unusual supply and demand dynamics.