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Market Outlooks
Global Weekly Commentary: UK political upheaval: market implications
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We identified geopolitical risk as the key market driver in the second half of 2019 in our midyear investment outlook. The UK is the latest example, where deep divisions over a potential Brexit have unsettled the political landscape, paving the way for a broader set of potential outcomes.
Policy and Regulatory Commentary
Washington Update: What to Expect from Washington this Fall
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Congress returns to Washington next week following an eventful August recess. The country endured growing trade tensions with China, a trio of tragic mass shootings in Texas and California and a catastrophic hurricane, which has wreaked havoc in the Bahamas and now threatens Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas.
Market Outlooks
Global Weekly Commentary: Back to school: our themes put to the test
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U.S.-China trade tensions have escalated, echoing our midyear outlook protectionist push theme, and bond yields have fallen to new lows. We do not see a near-term recession, with no clear signs of financial vulnerabilities and central banks helping extend the cycle.
Policy and Regulatory Commentary
Washington Update: In Washington this Fall, Plenty of Whimpers and a Possible Bang
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In The Hollow Men, poet T.S. Eliot famously said the world would end “not with a bang but with a whimper.”
Market Outlooks
Global Weekly Commentary: Look beyond market selloffs
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The “risk-off” mood in global markets deepened last week – as global government bond yields plunged to historical lows and the inversion of part of the U.S. Treasury curve sparked recession fears. Perceived safe-haven assets such as gold rallied. We still see limited near-term recession risks as central banks’ dovish pivot helps stretch the economic cycle, yet caution that trade and geopolitical tensions pose downside risks.
Policy and Regulatory Commentary
Washington Update: On Data Privacy, Look to the States
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As data breaches dominate news cycle after news cycle – at a seemingly exponential rate – have federal policymakers started to pay attention to the issue?
Policy and Regulatory Commentary
Washington Update: The Impact of Labeling China a Currency Manipulator
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While many Americans have been Googling the term “currency manipulation” over the last two days, one White House adviser has been enjoying the spoils of victory after a nearly decade-long policy fight.