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Macroeconomic & Geopolitical
China: Reopening Should Drive Growth
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After a year of anemic growth—by China’s standards—we expect a recovery in Chinese economic activity to gradually take place in 2023. The government has abandoned its zero-COVID policy and re-pivoted to growth, and the reopening, combined with a benign inflationary environment that gives China’s policymakers room to increase stimulus, we believe is a reason for optimism in 2023. That said, major policy questions and geopolitical risks cloud the outlook.
Market Outlooks
Outlook 2023: Better Than Feared
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As we look out to 2023, the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) has reached its “neutral” monetary policy stance, and the European Central Bank (ECB) is not far behind. Europe has moved fast to secure fossil fuel supply away from Russia, even at higher—but stable—prices. U.S. consumer price inflation is moderating. Asynchronous reopening, with China’s consumers set to rejoin the post-COVID economy, is likely to mean more inflation volatility next year.
Market Outlooks
8 Reasons for Optimism in U.S. Stocks
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Around the world, economies are slowing, with some developed markets likely already in recession, thanks in no small part to tightening monetary policies. Nowhere is this more apparent than in the United States, where the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) has moved more aggressively than in any other rate-rising period since the 1970s.
Market Outlooks
2023 Outlook: A Pivotal Year - On-Demand Webinar
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New year, new market challenges. Join our Chief Investment Strategist for North America Chris Shipley for our take on what investors can expect in 2023.
Market Outlooks
2023 Outlook: A Pivotal Year
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Northern Trust expects turbulence as inflation and monetary policy fears pivot to a weak global economy, but also to lower inflation and central bank pauses.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Market Update: US Stocks Lead Global Equity Decline, US Debt Ceiling Talks May Spur Volatility
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Stocks in Europe and China this year are providing support. After the U.S. government hit its debt ceiling last week, investors may face volatility with potentially tense political negotiations.
Market Outlooks
The U.S. Debt Ceiling Clock Has Started
The U.S. government hit the debt ceiling last week, and volatility could follow. Chief Investment Officer for Global Fixed Income Tom Swaney guides investors on what to watch in the coming months.