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Policy and Regulatory Commentary
Do October surprises really impact the election?
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An October surprise can be any piece of news, good or bad, that has the potential to upend the trajectory of a campaign, and history is rife with them...
Market Outlooks
Global Weekly Commentary: We keep risk low amid volatile macro
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We’ve said a period of steady growth and inflation known as the Great Moderation is over – and made this central to our investment views.
Policy and Regulatory Commentary
Do We Really Need The Debt Limit?
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According to most analysts, the U.S. government could breach its federal debt limit at some point late next summer. Of course, members of Congress can keep that breach from happening by raising or suspending the debt ceiling and allowing the U.S. Department of the Treasury to borrow more money.
Policy and Regulatory Commentary
A Commitment to…Oversight?
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The polls suggest the GOP will take a majority in the House – and possibly the Senate – next year. What would a Republican Congress do?
Market Outlooks
Global Weekly Commentary: Sour Fed growth view not dour enough
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Many central banks, like the Fed, are still solely focused on pressure to quickly get core inflation back to 2% without fully acknowledging how much economic pain it will take in a world shaped by production constraints.
Market Outlooks
Global Weekly Commentary: Sticking with reduced risk taking
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The new regime of macro volatility is playing out. Business activity is slumping and higher inflation persists.