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Market Outlooks
Global Weekly Commentary: Climate transition: a driver of returns
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We are incorporating the effects of climate change – and of the climate transition – in our return assumptions, as we believe avoiding climate-related damages will help drive growth and improve returns for risk assets. We see climate-resilient sectors as potential beneficiaries of a “green” transition, and are strategically overweight DM equities as they are skewed toward these sectors.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Macro Update: Who Will Balance the Budgets?
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It’s not today’s problem, but it’s a question investors will start asking more often as the Republican Party confronts its identity crisis.
Market Outlooks
Global Weekly Commentary: Downgrading government bonds
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We broaden our tactical pro-risk stance in light of major developments since the publication of our 2021 outlook in December: the vaccine rollout and up to $2.8 trillion of additional U.S. fiscal spending this year. Inflation expectations have risen sharply while real rates are steady in negative territory. We prefer equity over credit and turn underweight government bonds – in line with our strategic views.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Macro Update: How Will Europe Tackle the Biggest Question of the Year?
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Besides the rollout of vaccines that will save us from life inside four walls, we will know how governments want to handle the bill of the pandemic.
Market Outlooks
Global Weekly Commentary: Fiscal boost is not a market risk – yet
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The prospect of another large U.S. fiscal package has fed debates about potential economic overheating. We believe central banks for now have strong incentives to lean against any rapid rise in nominal yields even as inflation rises, supporting our tactically pro-risk stance. Yet rising debt levels may eventually pose risks to the low-rate regime. This is part of why we strategically underweight government debt.
Market Outlooks
Global Weekly Commentary: Why we favor tech and healthcare
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The pandemic has turbocharged transformations that were already under way – from sustainability to inequality. Yet markets have not fully priced in the durability of these trends, we believe, even with the glimpse into the future offered by the pandemic.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Macro Update: Seven Crucial Questions This Earnings Season Can Answer
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As investors strain to imagine the post-pandemic normal, a blurry vision is already coming into view.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Macro Update: Groundhog or Canary?
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The recent market gyrations look more like an entertaining sideshow, but it’s worth asking when they might be a signal of something worse.
Market Outlooks
Global Weekly Commentary: Valuation: not a worry for now
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Equity valuations have been top of mind after major stock indexes have scaled new highs. Last week’s volatile market moves as a result of technical deleveraging added fuel to these concerns. We do not see risk asset valuations as obviously stretched overall, and expect low interest rates – and a vaccine-led restart – to support risk assets over the next six to 12 months.