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Macroeconomic & Geopolitical
A Step Ahead: Everyone's Quitting Their Jobs. Good!
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Olga and Hugo explain why the Great Resignation is the wrong story to describe what’s happening in the U.S. labor market. Job turnover is a welcome sign for the economy, and wage increases for low-income workers can boost economic growth.
Market Outlooks
Global Weekly Commentary: Beware behavioral bias in new regime
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Investors are strapped in for a market rollercoaster in a new regime of increased volatility. Views on central bank rates are shuffling fast, as last week’s market reaction to the Fed’s rate hike showed.
Market Outlooks
Global Weekly Commentary: Expect more volatility after Fed hike
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The Fed is set to raise rates by an additional 0.75% or more this week as it scrambles to raise the fed funds rate into restrictive territory to rein in inflation.
Macroeconomic & Geopolitical
Anatomy of a Recession Long View: Are we there yet?
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The current bear market is in its early stages with multiple compression driving losses so far. Where equities ultimately bottom will depend on how well the economy holds up and the trajectory of corporate earnings.
Market Outlooks
Global Weekly Commentary: ECB may limit hikes as recession nears
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The European Central Bank (ECB) is set to lift rates for the first time in over a decade this week.
Investing Ideas
Factors, Sectors, Countries: Opportunities in Emerging Markets
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As we entered 2022, many emerging markets were already hurting. Let's take a deeper dive into how we're looking at emerging markets in light of higher commodity prices, rising rates, and the war in Ukraine.
Market Outlooks
Global Weekly Commentary: Downgrading stocks, upgrading credit
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We think the Great Moderation is over.