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Macroeconomic & Geopolitical
Direct Democracy On The Ballot: 2022 Ballot Initiatives
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In addition to control of Congress, voters will decide hundreds of ballot initiatives this November.
Market Outlooks
Global Weekly Commentary: Energy shock spurs Europe's recession
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The energy crunch will drive a recession in Europe, as we’ve argued since March. The crisis has worsened since then as Russia has halted gas supplies.
Market Outlooks
Global Weekly Commentary: Recession looms as regime takes root
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We’ve argued for a while that we’re in a new macro regime. Central bankers at the recent Jackson Hole forum started to recognize this reality.
Policy and Regulatory Commentary
With Less Than 10 Weeks Until Election Day, Are Democrats Really Surging?
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Are Democrats really headed into this fall’s election in a stronger place than they were three months ago? And how do today’s polls compare to surveys at the same time four years ago when a first term Republican president faced his first midterm election cycle? Let’s take a look.
Policy and Regulatory Commentary
Redistricting Fights Won't End this November
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Following yesterday’s primaries in New York and Florida, only a handful of U.S. states still have not yet held their primary elections, which means that voters in most states now have a very good idea who will be on their general election ballots this November.
Market Outlooks
Global Weekly Commentary: Caution: earnings under pressure
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We see company earnings deteriorating amid a rotation in consumer spending and a sputtering restart. This is partly why we remain cautious on stocks.