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Market Outlooks
Global Weekly Commentary: Sticking with reduced risk taking
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The new regime of macro volatility is playing out. Business activity is slumping and higher inflation persists.
Market Outlooks
Student of the Market: September 2022
Stay on top of the changing market environments by learning from their historical parallels.
Market Outlooks
Global Weekly Commentary: Energy shock spurs Europe's recession
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The energy crunch will drive a recession in Europe, as we’ve argued since March. The crisis has worsened since then as Russia has halted gas supplies.
Market Outlooks
Global Weekly Commentary: Recession looms as regime takes root
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We’ve argued for a while that we’re in a new macro regime. Central bankers at the recent Jackson Hole forum started to recognize this reality.
Market Outlooks
Global Weekly Commentary: Caution: earnings under pressure
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We see company earnings deteriorating amid a rotation in consumer spending and a sputtering restart. This is partly why we remain cautious on stocks.
Market Outlooks
Global Weekly Commentary: Why we like credit over equities
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We prefer investment grade (IG) credit over equities on a tactical horizon as we see a new market regime with higher volatility taking shape.
Macroeconomic & Geopolitical
A Step Ahead: Everyone's Quitting Their Jobs. Good!
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Olga and Hugo explain why the Great Resignation is the wrong story to describe what’s happening in the U.S. labor market. Job turnover is a welcome sign for the economy, and wage increases for low-income workers can boost economic growth.