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Market Outlooks
Global Weekly Commentary: U.S. dollar underpins EM assets
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We see the U.S. dollar stabilizing or weakening over the next six to 12 months. Two broad drivers – monetary policy differentials and risk appetite – decide the dollar’s moves, in our view.
Market Outlooks
Global Weekly Commentary: A cyclical rotation
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Markets have greeted the new year with optimism. The signing of a limited “Phase 1” deal between the U.S. and China reinforces our expectation for global trade tensions to take a pause in 2020.
Market Outlooks
Global Weekly Commentary: Geopolitical risks on our 2020 radar
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U.S.-Iran tensions have spiked in recent weeks with the U.S. killing of a top Iranian military leader triggering retaliation. This reminds us of still heightened geopolitical risks across many dimensions, even as we see a relatively benign backdrop for risk assets in 2020.
Market Outlooks
Global Weekly Commentary: Guide to our 2020 outlook
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We see a big shift in the macro environment in the year ahead – as the dovish monetary policy pivot of 2019 fades as a market driver. We detail these views in our 2020 Global outlook.
Market Outlooks
Global Weekly Commentary: Taking stock of our 2019 views
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In 2019 the key drivers of global markets have been trade tensions and central bank easing, in our view. We were early to see that a protectionist push would hurt the industrial cycle and business investment — a key reason for our global growth downgrade. And we were correct to say that government bonds would play a crucial role as ballast during equity sell-offs even at low yields. But we did not see such a strong and persistent flight to safety and the unusual synchronized easing pivot from central banks at this advanced stage in the expansion.
Market Outlooks
Global Weekly Commentary: Lower growth, higher inflation
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Markets breathed a sigh of relief last week on signs of easing U.S.-China trade tensions. We see ongoing policy support, the absence of obvious financial system vulnerabilities and resilient consumer spending helping extend the U.S. economic expansion.