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Market Outlooks
[Webinar Replay] Behavioral Finance in Bear Markets
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Behavioral Finance in Bear Markets
Market Outlooks
A bear market bottom checklist
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A bear market bottom has historically been marked by several economic and market signposts, including depressed investor sentiment, widening credit spreads and a policy response to the systemic shock facing the country. More importantly, as we try to identify when . . .
Market Outlooks
Weekly Wire: When it rains
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Most of the focus on COVID-19 has understandably been on its physical impact, but the psychological impact of a pandemic is also worth considering. Social interaction is a huge source of psychological wellbeing, and its loss, paired with concerns about the market, as well as the health and wellbeing of loved ones, can begin to take a psychological toll.
Market Outlooks
AAM Viewpoints: Humans Fear the Virus. Markets Fear the Panic.
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It seems daily, if not hourly, the global panic surrounding the COVID-19 virus is spiking. Fear has gripped our world and has seemingly taken over. The virus is not the problem, the fear of the virus is the problem. This is a classic case of perception becoming reality.
Market Outlooks
A 30 year perspective, and a bit more perspective on the 30-year mortgage
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Adopting a long-term view on investing and the markets is needed most when it is difficult to do—like right now, when stocks are extremely volatile and under pressure as investors try to determine how COVID-19 and this year’s election will ultimately impact corporate and consumer sentiment and spending, corporate profits, and the pricing of risk assets.
Market Outlooks
AAM Viewpoints: Are Bonds Smarter Than Stocks?
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Prior to the outbreak of the coronavirus, the domestic economy appeared to be on solid footing with reasonable growth prospects and no inflation in sight (as measured by the Fed). Since that time, economic impacts regarding the spread of the virus have taken center stage as interruptions to supply chains and global travel have been felt to varying degrees around the globe.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Wire: The Fed lowers, Biden rises…Now what?
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Market volatility continued through the last week due to ongoing concerns surrounding the spread of COVID19, the shifting Democratic presidential candidate landscape, and their combined economic impact. We’ve experienced wild daily moves in the S&P 500 Index (S&P 500), but as of Wednesday’s close, we’re just 7.5% below the all-time high reached on February 19.
Market Outlooks
AAM Viewpoints: The Sky is Falling! The Sky is Falling!
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Ok, maybe not (yet), but falling acorns in the form of the coronavirus and recent data showing decelerating U.S. business activity has many rethinking their asset allocation – especially income seeking investors.
Market Outlooks
Weekly wire: One thing we shouldn’t be stressed about
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Last week was an exceptionally difficult week for risk assets, emphasized by Thursday’s record 1,192 point drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Average – a selloff sparked by growing concern that the Coronavirus could prove to carry a greater weight on global growth than originally thought. Further – and not to pick sides on the political front – the ascendancy of the Sanders campaign became another concerning point for many on Wall Street, given the candidate’s proposed policies generally viewed as negative for the markets. It has been a stressful several days, to say the least.
Market Outlooks
Continuing concerns regarding COVID-19
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The global equity markets have continued their decline, which began on February 20, in response to fears over the COVID-19 (coronavirus) becoming a global pandemic. The S&P 500 Index fell -12.0% from February 20-27 and is on pace for another decline on February 28. International equity markets have fared better, with the MSCI EAFE and MSCI Emerging Markets indices declining -7.4% and -6.6%, respectively. The last six days has been the fastest correction (10% drawdown) on record for the S&P 500 off an all-time high, which has likely exacerbated market fears. With the drawdown, the markets are pricing in significant earnings declines as a result of the virus, and certainly weaker global economic activity.
Market Outlooks
AAM Viewpoints: Small Business Optimism Posts a Third Year of Strong Readings
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Over the past few years I’ve written about trends in small businesses based on the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) Survey of Small Business Economic Trends. I follow these trends because I come from a family with multiple generations of small business owners and small companies in the United States create about two-thirds of net new jobs, drive innovation and account for 44% of U.S. economic activity.