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Market Outlooks
Weekly Wire: Market concerns regarding the Coronavirus
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After reaching an all-time market high on February 19, 2020, US markets began experiencing volatility and fell about 4-5% as of February 24, 2020. To blame is the ongoing outbreak of COVID-19 (Coronavirus), which was first identified in Wuhan, China, but has now spread globally.
Market Outlooks
AAM Viewpoints: Coronavirus and Domestic Credit
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The last recession was the sub-prime mortgage crisis, before that the dot.com bubble aggravated by the 9/11 terrorist attacks, and before that it was the Savings & Loan crisis. In these past recessions there were, at the time, issues not generally foreseen, but when they broke it opened fissures in the economy that ultimately led to a recession.
Policy and Regulatory Commentary
Economic Indicators Suggest President Trump's Reelection
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In testimony on Capitol Hill this week, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell repeatedly praised the strength of the U.S. economy across multiple indicators. He pointed to an historically-low unemployment rate, rising wages, and continual, moderate overall growth. Powell has a notably turbulent relationship with President Donald Trump, but his assessment should have been music to the ears of top White House and Trump campaign officials (even if the president could not help live-Tweeting his criticism of Powell’s testimony). The economy, after all, is historically perhaps the most reliable presidential election indicator.
Market Outlooks
AAM Viewpoints: Is Recent Bond Market Volatility About More Than Easing Coronavirus Fears?
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As fear gives way to resolve and markets assess the potential economic impact of the coronavirus, a risk on mentality has taken hold with global equity markets taking back losses and global bond markets selling off in concert. While these fears are sometimes a bit irrational, the Center for Disease Control and Prevention estimates 12,000-61,000 Americans have died from influenza since 2010, there is no doubt we can all understand the underlying fear.
Market Outlooks
AAM Viewpoints: Current Events Overshadowing a Nascent Recovery
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While we have previously mentioned, I feel it is important to revisit the race between the results of the FOMC’s (Federal Open Market Committee) model-driven restrictive policy in 2018 and the potential recovery borne of the Fed’s 2019 mea culpa.
Market Outlooks
AAM Viewpoints: Generational Opportunity Now and for the Next Decade?
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For most asset classes, 2019 was a terrific year for prices. Generally, the equity and bond markets enjoyed a significant surge that all but replaced their terrible performance in the 4th quarter of 2018.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Wire: The Coronavirus: History may not repeat, but it does rhyme
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By their nature, exogenous shocks are impossible to model for – we simply don’t know when to expect the unexpected. As exogenous shocks occur, investors will understandably seek to discern their ultimate impact on the economy and the stock market.
Market Outlooks
AAM Viewpoints: Attempting to Right-Size Expectations
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A quick canvas of the headlines and sound bites detailing market outlooks for 2020 includes some positivity but also many phrases, such as: get more defensive, returns will be muted, now is not a good time to be investing and don’t expect a repeat of 2019 anytime soon.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Wire: Our “20/20 vision”
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To say investors have had a few things vying for their attention these past few weeks might be the understatement of our brand new year. Consider that so far in January we have seen the market consistently hit all-time highs; the US and Iran approach the brink of war; the Phase 1 US/China trade agreement signed; the “New NAFTA” or USMCA pass the Senate, and that same Senate launch the impeachment trial of President Trump.
Market Outlooks
AAM Viewpoints: 2020 Earnings Outlook
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Tis the season for outlooks and one of the more dependable indicators for the equity market over time has been the direction of corporate earnings. Not surprisingly, as the earnings power of U.S. corporations has grown, equity prices have moved higher.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Wire: The US, Iran, oil, and the economy... Where do we go from here?
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We have been asked often what we think of US/Iranian hostilities, including how that dynamic might develop and how it might impact the economy. Truth be told, an investment professional should be reluctant to opine on any budding global conflict since discerning the direction it will take is notoriously difficult and it is a bit unseemly to speak of economic growth and financial assets while our troops are in harm’s way.