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Policy and Regulatory Commentary
Washington Update: Based on Presidential Primaries Past, The Democratic Race is Still Wide Open
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Given events in Washington over the last several days, you might be expecting a deep dive into the impeachment process. While we spent some time walking through the intricacies and history of the process in April, there will no doubt be much more to say on the issue in the weeks ahead as events transpire at the Capitol. Today, though, we take a break from Washington for a visit to the campaign trail.
Policy and Regulatory Commentary
Washington Update: Washington Isn’t Prepared for a Recession
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The Business Roundtable announced this week that, in its latest reading, the organization’s CEO Economic Outlook Index had its biggest quarterly decline in seven years. Business Roundtable President and CEO Joshua Bolton said, “American businesses now have their foot poised above the brake, and they're tapping the brake periodically.”
Market Outlooks
Weekly Wire: The US continues to lead the global equity market race
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When it comes to the global equity market race, well, it hasn’t been much of a race. With US equities – as measured by the S&P 500 Index (S&P 500) – up 254% over the past 10 years and 18% in 2019 vs. developed international equities – as measured by the MSCI EAFE Index – up 74% and 10% and emerging international equities – as measured by the MSCI EM Index – up 90% and 7%, respectively, through the end of August.
Market Outlooks
AAM Viewpoints: Global Monetary Policy: Easing Like Sunday Morning
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In anticipation of the Federal Reserve lowering rates next week at their meeting and the announcement this week that the European Central Bank (ECB) reduced rates to -0.50% and increased their purchasing of bonds a month, we believe it to be worthwhile to look at where we may be headed in policy and market action. Now we may be accused of being a bit presumptive about a future event such as an interest rate cut next week, however, we feel a bit confident in that the market is currently pricing in a 99.9% chance of a rate cut according to the Fed Fund Futures.
Policy and Regulatory Commentary
Washington Update: What Could A Federal Data Privacy Bill Look Like?
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About a month ago, we advised readers that they should look to the states, rather than Congress, to see substantial progress on data privacy legislation over the next few months.
Market Outlooks
AAM Viewpoints: Is ESG A Magic Green Button?
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Have you read any research on ESG investing recently? If you have, then you’ll know that academic studies continue to stress the positive alpha-generating potential of ESG factors.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Wire: Was that big market drop really so big? Why context is key.
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Context is key to analyzing and understanding the economy and markets and making informed decisions that lead to successful investment outcomes. Nowhere is context more important than near-term stock market moves, particularly when it comes to the Dow Jones Industrial Average (the Dow).
Policy and Regulatory Commentary
Washington Update: What to Expect from Washington this Fall
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Congress returns to Washington next week following an eventful August recess. The country endured growing trade tensions with China, a trio of tragic mass shootings in Texas and California and a catastrophic hurricane, which has wreaked havoc in the Bahamas and now threatens Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas.
Market Outlooks
AAM Viewpoints: Contrarian Market Signals: What is certain about uncertainty?
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Contrary to narratives bombarding the markets right now, certain indicators are historically very bullish for equity assets. Though the anxiety about the flock of “black swans” being right around the corner helps to mitigate over exuberance, it astonishes me how many times we forget the previous prognostications and make new cases for the failed projection. Recently, I have been reflecting on Mark Twain’s quote: “I've had a lot of worries in my life, most of which never happened.”
Market Outlooks
Weekly Wire: Don’t get down if the markets aren’t dancing in September
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It’s been a positive – if somewhat bumpy – year for US equities, with the S&P 500 Index (S&P 500) up about 17% in 2019, despite pullbacks of about 7% in May and August. The robust performance of the US stock market isn’t surprising given the US economy has grown about 2.5% year-to-date, corporate profits are up year over year (albeit modestly), unemployment is low, consumer confidence is high, and inflation is muted.