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Policy and Regulatory Commentary
A Stronger CFPB Is Soon Likely
The U.S. Senate Banking Committee will hold a hearing next week to consider the nomination of Rohit Chopra, President Joe Biden’s choice to lead the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB)
Market Outlooks
Weekly Market Compass: As we enter a new lunar year, the Fed reiterates its stance on inflation and stimulus.
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We have just begun a new lunar year — the Year of the Ox. I think we are all happy to have said goodbye to the Year of the Rat — although I suppose we should have known this last lunar year was going to be bad because the Year of the Rat is traditionally considered to be a year of turbulence in which change or disaster can happen. Interestingly, the rat and the ox have an unusual relationship.
Macroeconomic & Geopolitical
Will Minimum Wage Sink COVID Relief?
Next week could bring the first major test of the durability of Democrats’ advantage in Washington. A House of Representatives vote on President Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion coronavirus spending package will indicate whether the party’s one-seat advantage in the Senate and its four-seat majority in the House is enough to get major legislation passed.
Macroeconomic & Geopolitical
An Explanation of Reconciliation
Right now, Democrats on various U.S. House and Senate committees are busy putting together their respective pieces of another COVID-19 spending relief package. The price tag for the legislation will be around $1.9 trillion – the amount President Joe Biden outlined when he took office last month.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Market Compass: Has "irrational exuberance" gotten the better of markets?
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Well, let me try to answer that question based on my own experience. I entered the financial services industry in late 1995, a bright-eyed and eager runaway from the practice of law. Not soon afterward, I listened intently to a historic speech by then-Federal Reserve Chair Alan Greenspan, who suggested that the stock market was exhibiting “irrational exuberance.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Market Compass: Market speculation hit a new level this week with GameStop, and the Fed threw cold water on inflation concerns.
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The Federal Reserve (Fed) met last week and, as I expected, Fed Chair Jay Powell reassured markets that it doesn’t have a trigger finger when it comes to inflation. In his press conference following the meeting, Powell showed concern that the economic recovery had moderated and stressed that it was more dangerous to do too little than to do too much to support the economy (a sentiment echoed by US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen last week as well).
Policy and Regulatory Commentary
Assembling a Cabinet
One week after his inauguration as the 46th President of the United States, the Senate has confirmed four of Joe Biden’s cabinet picks.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Market Compass: The next few months could be a slog for these economies
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What a week — both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite Indexes reached all-time highs last Thursday, but we also saw a reversal of the rotation from growth/defensives to cyclicals in both European and US markets.
Policy and Regulatory Commentary
The First Twenty Four Hours (Or So)
In just a few hours, Joe Biden will become the president of the United States. Today’s inauguration ceremony will not look like ceremonies past, though the day did begin with President-elect Biden attending church services, a tradition carried out by many previous presidents.