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Market Outlooks
The Fed’s new framework and its evolving reaction function
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Amid an accelerating election season, ongoing pandemic and a return to partisan gridlock, the Federal Reserve (Fed) has been a bit less prominent in the news cycle lately. However, at the central bank’s annual August retreat in Jackson Hole, Chairman Jerome Powell announced amendments to the Fed’s Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy, which had been largely unchanged since 2012. At a recent mini-forum on this topic, we discussed the significance of this change and its implications for future Fed policy and for investors.
Fixed Income Insights
October Fixed Income Market Update
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In our view, while economic data has been generally improving, higher frequency data such as elevated jobless claims and small business employment highlight the risk that the recovery could stall absent additional fiscal stimulus. Given tensions and political posturing entering the last stages of election season, short-term we believe risk premiums should be higher on the margin until resolution of the election.
Market Outlooks
BMO Market Charts- October 19, 2020
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The Technology sector has contributed 94% of the S&P 500’s YTD return and currently has a 28% weighting in the index. The remaining ten sectors, on average, have contributed less than 1%.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Market Snapshot: October 16, 2020
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Read the Weekly Market Snapshot to stay up-to-date with stock markets and sectors, bond market returns and financial news for the week.
Market Outlooks
BMO Market Charts - October 12, 2020
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Price moves (i.e., rate and spread changes) may dominate in a given year, but over time, income has driven the returns of U.S. investment grade corporate bonds.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Market Snapshot: October 09, 2020
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Read the Weekly Market Snapshot to stay up-to-date with stock markets and sectors, bond market returns and financial news for the week.
Market Outlooks
BMO Market Charts - October 05, 2020
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As Treasury rates have fallen, spreads - the incremental yield between Treasury and Non-Treasury assets - have become a larger component of Corporate Bond total yields.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Market Snapshot: October 02, 2020
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Read the Weekly Market Snapshot to stay up-to-date with stock markets and sectors, bond market returns and financial news for the week.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Market Snapshot: September 25, 2020
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Read the Weekly Market Snapshot to stay up-to-date with stock markets and sectors, bond market returns and financial news for the week.
Market Outlooks
BMO Market Charts - September 28th, 2020
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The S&P 500’s recent sell off and recovery cycle was one of the fastest in history, taking only six months to complete.
Market Outlooks
Turning up the heat on a boiling pot
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The passing of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg has created a vacancy in the U.S. Supreme Court with only weeks until the November election. As the country awaits President Trump’s nominee, pundits on both sides of the aisle are claiming this process will strengthen their election chances. We see this process as primarily exacerbating the partisanship of U.S. voters and it is unclear which party will able to drive greater voter turnout or sway more independents
Fixed Income Insights
Interest rates: Lower for longer...or forever?
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On September 16, 2020, the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) left interest rates near zero and signaled that it expects to hold them there through at least 2023, adding outcome based guidance. The statement follows the new long-term policy framework announced by Chair Jay Powell in August at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s annual Jackson Hole conference. The Fed notes that rates will remain near zero “until labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with the Committee’s assessments of maximum employment and inflation has risen to 2 percent and is on track to moderately exceed 2 percent for some time.” We didn’t get a precise definition of what a moderate overshoot would look like, allowing the Fed to retain some flexibility.