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Market Outlooks
Weekly Wire: Was that big market drop really so big? Why context is key.
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Context is key to analyzing and understanding the economy and markets and making informed decisions that lead to successful investment outcomes. Nowhere is context more important than near-term stock market moves, particularly when it comes to the Dow Jones Industrial Average (the Dow).
Policy and Regulatory Commentary
Washington Update: What to Expect from Washington this Fall
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Congress returns to Washington next week following an eventful August recess. The country endured growing trade tensions with China, a trio of tragic mass shootings in Texas and California and a catastrophic hurricane, which has wreaked havoc in the Bahamas and now threatens Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Wire: Don’t get down if the markets aren’t dancing in September
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It’s been a positive – if somewhat bumpy – year for US equities, with the S&P 500 Index (S&P 500) up about 17% in 2019, despite pullbacks of about 7% in May and August. The robust performance of the US stock market isn’t surprising given the US economy has grown about 2.5% year-to-date, corporate profits are up year over year (albeit modestly), unemployment is low, consumer confidence is high, and inflation is muted.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Wire: One thing we are NOT worried about today
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There are many issues that have investors concerned as we are set to say goodbye to summer, including a flat to partially inverted yield curve, deteriorating US/ China relations, and a slowdown in manufacturing activity in the US and around the world. As we previously wrote, we don’t believe the yield curve is indicating a recession is imminent and we do believe the US and China will eventually solve for trade, an outcome which should prove to be a positive catalyst for manufacturing globally.
Policy and Regulatory Commentary
Washington Update: In Washington this Fall, Plenty of Whimpers and a Possible Bang
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In The Hollow Men, poet T.S. Eliot famously said the world would end “not with a bang but with a whimper.”
Market Outlooks
Weekly Wire: It feels like Groundhog Day… Bill Murray, trade, tariffs, and the markets
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In the film Groundhog Day, Bill Murray plays TV weatherman Phil Connors who, against his wishes, is sent to report on the annual Groundhog Day event in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania and, while there, relives Groundhog Day again, and again and again with an eye toward his having the perspective and the time to become a better person, which he eventually does.
Policy and Regulatory Commentary
Washington Update: On Data Privacy, Look to the States
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As data breaches dominate news cycle after news cycle – at a seemingly exponential rate – have federal policymakers started to pay attention to the issue?
Market Outlooks
Weekly Wire: Bizarro bonds – guaranteed to lose you money, and not just in a comic strip
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Fans of Superman – or Seinfeld – may be familiar with Bizarro World, a cubed planet far out in space that is inhabited by imperfect duplicates of Superman, Lois Lane, and their friends. In a nutshell, on Bizarro – relative to earth – up is down, hot is cold, good is bad, and beautiful is ugly.
Policy and Regulatory Commentary
Washington Update: The Impact of Labeling China a Currency Manipulator
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While many Americans have been Googling the term “currency manipulation” over the last two days, one White House adviser has been enjoying the spoils of victory after a nearly decade-long policy fight.