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Market Outlooks
Russia & Ukraine: Our Investment Research Views
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The rapid escalation between Russia and Ukraine has dramatically shifted investor sentiment. We are witnessing a meaningful setback in key financial markets, prompting volatility and negative speculation. This is normal amid uncertainty, but it is worth stepping back to understand the fundamentals of the situation.
Market Outlooks
In 2022, Don't Predict. Prepare.
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Volatility, the rise and fall of prices, is inevitable. We aim to judiciously compound returns and avoid permanent capital impairment. We don’t predict. We invest.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Macro Update: Globalization is Still Strong, but Changing
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Global integration has clearly not stopped, but it is changing. Even with the pandemic’s disruption of global supply chains and rising U.S.-China tensions, investors should continue to count on a world that seems to be further integrating, rather than falling apart.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Macro Update: No Stopping China’s Restocking
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FIFO gives China the global distribution edge across export sectors, even those that fell.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Macro Update: What Will Kill This Market?
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Something will at some point, but the most plausible downside scenarios still look like a stretch for this year and next.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Macro Update: The Emerging Markets Recovery & The Race Ahead
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With the Fed’s “tapering” clock now officially ticking, many Emerging Markets face an even more urgent challenge to tackle the pandemic.
Policy and Regulatory Commentary
With More Stimulus on the Horizon, Fed Expects a Strong Recovery in 2021
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The Federal Reserve in March raised its forecasts for GDP growth, inflation and employment, based on the $1.9 trillion in new stimulus signed into law and an accelerated vaccine rollout.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Macro Update: Approaching Apogee
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Even as the U.S. economy rockets higher, last week's jobs miss will start to raise questions about what is a sustainable trajectory.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Macro Update: Coiled Spring
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Exceptional garden pinks and yellows mark the arrival of seasonal spring, but the world’s economic data outline a “coiled spring".
Market Outlooks
Weekly Macro Update: Time to Start Thinking About Thinking
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The Fed doesn’t need to act anytime soon, but Powell needs to reassure investors that he sees the same strong data they do.